The Other I-Word Angering Voters Across Western World
From the U.S. to the U.K. to Australia, backlash builds against governments for failing to control immigration
By Greg Ip, WSJ
Dec. 13, 2023 9:30 am ET
Believe it or not, there is something that might hurt President Biden’s re-election chances more than inflation. In the latest Wall Street Journal poll, twice as many respondents named immigration as the biggest issue in next year’s election as inflation. His disapproval on the border exceeded approval by 37 percentage points, compared with 36 points for inflation.
Not that it is much comfort, but Biden has company: Surging immigration is a global phenomenon, as tight labor markets attract migrants, often helped by sophisticated smugglers. It is also a political albatross for incumbents in countries that, like the U.S., have long been major recipients of immigrants.
After Australia’s new Labor government raised the immigration target last year, arrivals skyrocketed and public disapproval shot up. This week, it said it would tighten up visa requirements and “bring migration back to sustainable levels.”
Canada’s Liberal government, which has made immigration the keystone to economic growth, has similarly seen public opposition rise and its popularity plummet. It has stopped raising the immigration target for newcomers and last week promised to crack down on what it called “puppy mill” schools recruiting foreign students with substandard diplomas.
British Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is seeking to pass a bill that would send asylum seekers to Rwanda over objections from members of his own party that consider it insufficiently strict.
Why the backlash? Circumstances differ across countries, but there are elements common to all.
The nature of the inflows has compounded a postpandemic sense of loss of control. In the U.S., successive efforts by the Biden administration have failed to stem the inflow of migrants claiming asylum, betting they will get a job and a new life before the clogged courts hear their case.
“There’s less order in the country, less order at the border, a general sense that the integrity of the nation is being called into question,” said Ruy Teixeira, a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute who was once close to Democrats and is now critical of the party, in particular on immigration. “Social disorder is underestimated as a potential voter motivator.”
While it isn’t as bad as the U.S. southern border, for which Republicans are insisting on reforms as conditions to approve aid for Ukraine, other countries have also failed to control inflows. Last fall, Australia initially projected a net 235,000 migrants would arrive in the year through June. More than 500,000 did, many through what the Aussies call “rorting,” or working the system: students and other temporary workers finding ways to overstay their visas.
Canada’s annual immigration target is under half a million, but in the year through June 2023, 1.1 million migrants entered. Most came under temporary visas, some issued by those “puppy mill” schools to foreign students seeking a work permit and a chance to immigrate permanently.
President Biden said he was willing to work with Republicans in Congress to do ‘significantly more’ on border security in order to pass tens of billions of dollars in new aid for Ukraine, which runs out by the end of the year. Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
While immigration has lots of unquantifiable benefits—the relief to those fleeing persecution or poverty, enrichment of the host country—the usual justification is economic. Businesses want foreign workers to relieve labor shortages. But the economic benefits to the public haven’t been so apparent lately. Federal Reserve officials credit immigration with helping curb U.S. inflation this year by increasing the supply of labor and restraining wages, but why would native-born workers like that?
Meanwhile, many Australians blame immigration for aggravating the shortage of housing. New Zealand’s central bank has said it may raise interest rates because of the pressure immigration is putting on housing prices. In November, pollster Leger reported that 75% of Canadians thought immigrants were putting pressure on housing, 73% on healthcare and 63% on schools.
Public support is always higher for skilled immigrants because they raise the productivity of the existing workforce. Australia and Canada long sustained support for immigration by targeting newcomers with badly needed skills. Yet in both, the mix of migrants has shifted in the opposite direction.
Australia has 1.8 million temporary visa holders entitled to work, yet many end up in low-end jobs, as do permanent migrants who arrive under family reunification or humanitarian programs, a government report noted earlier this year. Public support for “high skilled migration is strong,” it said, but “less clear” for lower paid. Unauthorized migrants to the U.S. are generally less educated and less proficient in English than the native born.
Demographic change is supposed to happen slowly, but the latest migrant surge has, for many, been rapid, and disorienting. Inflows for Canada, Australia and Britain all hit records, though part of that was to clear pandemic backlogs. U.S. immigration levels haven’t been at a record, but they might not reflect the enormous increase in unauthorized entrants since 2021.
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Many of the Britons who voted in 2016 to leave the European Union did so to regain control over immigration and its effect on the national identity. Yet since then inflows have climbed 40%, and public opposition to immigration has stiffened markedly. It is the single biggest issue to Conservative voters, even more than the economy.
Last year, Canada recorded its fastest population growth since 1957. But whereas the growth in 1957 was driven by the baby boom, almost all of 2022’s increase was due to immigration. Publicly, few object to this, said Christian Bourque, executive vice president of Leger, because it sounds politically incorrect. “But quietly, people are expressing doubts: Can we afford and welcome that many people?”
In the U.S., opposition to immigration has tended to be concentrated among older, conservative, white voters. But Teixeira pointed out that many Hispanic voters are appalled at the surge in illegal migrants; it is one reason so many back former President Donald Trump despite his often harsh rhetoric and policies toward migrants.
Ironically, while Trump was president, public support for increased migration generally rose, according to Gallup. After Biden became president and unauthorized entries surged, that support melted away. Which shows that it isn’t just Biden’s political future that would benefit from solving the crisis at the border; so would the future of immigration itself.
Write to Greg Ip at greg.ip@wsj.com
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