Biden thinks he can win by blaming the immigration crisis on Trump. Really?

A Borderline Crazy Campaign Strategy

Biden thinks he can win by blaming the immigration crisis on Trump. Really.

By Jason L. Riley, WSJ

Feb. 13, 2024 6:15 pm ET

It may be the most bizarre presidential campaign strategy since Walter Mondale promised to raise taxes in 1984 and went on to lose 49 states to Ronald Reagan.

Joe Biden has convinced himself that immigration is a winning issue for Democrats. The plan is to persuade voters that stratospheric levels of unlawful migration on his watch are entirely someone else’s fault. “I’ll be taking this issue to the country,” the president announced last week from the White House. “Every day between now and November, the American people are going to know that the only reason the border is not secure is Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican friends.” Huh?

Not even the president’s besties in the liberal press—the same outlets now disputing special counsel Robert Hur’s descriptions of Mr. Biden’s mental decline—are buying that nonsense. A recent front-page New York Times article reported that a record 300,000 migrants had crossed the border illegally in December alone. “It is not just because they believe they will be able to make it across the 2,000-mile southern frontier,” the story noted matter-of-factly. “They are also certain that once they make it to the United States, they will be able to stay. Forever. And by and large, they are not wrong.”

If Mondale assumed four decades ago that the electorate wanted Reagan’s tax cuts reversed, Mr. Biden told himself that he won in 2020 because voters were unhappy with Mr. Trump’s border policies. It was delusional but nevertheless what the hard left demanded. Even if the president has come to see the error of his thinking, it’s probably too late to convince voters that he is committed to changing course. Mr. Biden abandoned his predecessor’s enforcement policies, looked the other way as foreign nationals gamed our asylum laws, and told the country that mounting unlawful entries were a “seasonal” phenomenon that would soon peter out. Immigration ought to be the last topic he wants to raise on the campaign trail.

Political damage from the president’s border neglect is still being calculated. Lately, illegal immigration has become a top issue for voters in both parties. An ABC News/Ipsos survey released Sunday showed that Americans not only trust Mr. Trump more than Mr. Biden on illegal immigration but also blame Democrats for the Senate’s border-bill collapse last week, even though Mr. Biden supported the legislation and Mr. Trump opposed it.

Republicans control the House and obviously share blame for this debacle. They must explain to GOP voters why conservatives rejected bipartisan legislation, even though it included many border provisions that the party has demanded for decades. Mr. Trump clearly wants to run hard on border security this fall, and he fears that doing something to address it now will steal his thunder. It’s also clear that Republicans in Congress are loath to cross their presumptive nominee, even if the price of doing nothing is another year of historically high illegal immigration.

You can’t blame Democrats for aiming to exploit this dynamic, but after years of trying to erase the southern border instead of repair it, they lack credibility. Moreover, the political left’s current immigration woes extend beyond images on TV of giant migrant caravans wading across the Rio Grande. The problem is also playing out in the sanctuary jurisdictions that have welcomed newcomers with free housing, food, healthcare and schooling for migrant children. During periods of strong economic growth, concerns about illegal immigration tend to recede. But voters today continue to give Mr. Biden poor marks on the economy, a situation that could exacerbate anti-immigrant sentiment and diminish turnout for the president among Democrats and independents.

The 1996 welfare-reform law was meant to discourage foreigners from entering the U.S. to go on the dole. Most illegal immigrants already didn’t qualify for federal and state welfare programs, and the new law extended restrictions to legal immigrants who had been in the country for less than five years. Over time, liberals have chipped away at the eligibility requirements, to the point that millions of illegal immigrants today are receiving far more than just sanctuary.

Illinois began offering free healthcare to illegal immigrants in 2022. In January California expanded its Medicaid program, Medi-Cal, to cover people regardless of their immigration status, and next year undocumented seniors will become eligible for the state’s food-assistance program. Earlier this month, New York announced the launch of a pilot program that offers prepaid credit cards to migrant families for food and baby supplies. Eligibility for a separate welfare program that dispenses cash payments was modified recently to include the undocumented.

“It’s one thing to have free immigration to jobs,” said Milton Friedman. “It’s another thing to have free immigration to welfare. And you can’t have both.” While campaigning in 2020, Mr. Biden said that “Milton Friedman isn’t running the show anymore.” Perhaps, but rejecting that wise advice could cost Democrats dearly.