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  • snitzoid

Crime/Inflation/Wokeness and the midterms. Spritzler's crystal ball.

Three things (in my opinion) will greatly impact the congressional races in November(see charts below).

  • Non-Blacks deeply resent being shamed, blamed, told they're racist by the Democratic Party/The Media. It's non PC for them to speak up, but they'll voice their dissatisfaction at the poles.

  • People are seeing their buying power eroded by inflation. "Consumer sentiment" has dropped like a rock (see chart below). Government COVID shut downs, paying citizens not to work, runaway spending may not have singularly caused supply chain inflation, but the Dem party will get the blame.

  • The war on cops, new progressive policing/sentencing laws in America's major cities & spiralling crime rates make many Americans feel unsafe. 15 of the largest 16 cities are run by Dem administrations. I suspect the party will be blamed on this issue.

The largest single issue that can hurt the Republicans is Trump. Will he stay somewhat in the background between now and November? If he doesn't will that be sufficient to preserve a Dem majority in the House? Hard to say. I'd handicap the odds of a Republican controlled House and Senate this Sept at 70%.

BTW: The website Election Betting Odds currently puts the odds at 75.6% for the Senate and 84.6% for the House. Below shows how the odds have changed since last year. Note the odds on the Senate have flipped flopped before going strongly Republican.

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