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Holy spitballs, the Repubs now have a 7% lead for midterms?


It was just yesterday that the contest looked tight. The GOP opening a 4th QTR lead? People starting to panic as the economy, inflation and the stock market turns to dog sh-t?


So who's more likely to still stand by the progressive Dems? Women, African Americans, and young people, apparently?


Who was the guy who famously said, "it's the economy stupid"? Wait. Hold on, I'm thinking. Ahhh...James Carville (1992). You know Bill Clinton's guy.


GOP Congressional Lead Now at 7 Points

Rasmussen Polling

Friday, October 14, 2022


The 2022 midterm elections are now 25 days away, and Republicans have a seven-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.


The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)


The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 47% to 43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.


Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.


In October 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats and Republicans were tied at 45% each in the generic ballot question. The margin was still a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.


The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-13, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.


The expanded Republican lead is due mainly to a 16-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 15% are undecided.


Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 27% of black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of black voters, 38% of whites and 42% of other minorities would vote Democrat.


The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (53%) now 10 points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was two points last week.


Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 12-point margin, 47% to 35%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 52% to 39%, and the GOP lead is 18 points – 56% to 38% – among voters 65 and older.


Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by 12 points, 51% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000, while Republicans have a 12-point advantage among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.


Republicans now hold strong majorities among both government employees and retirees, while private sector workers are almost evenly divided, with 44% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans.


Despite controversies over other issues, the economy remains the top concern for voters just weeks ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections.


A year after school controversies helped Republicans win big in Virginia, education remains an important issue for most voters.


Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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