The results below are from Morning Consult (was covered by the top news services a month ago). So does this mean Modi isn't top dog?
An Election Rebuke for India’s Narendra Modi
The country’s voters want economic results more than ethnic chauvinism.
By The Editorial Board
June 4, 2024 1:10 pm ET
Results are coming in from India’s weekend election—the world’s largest democratic exercise, with nearly one billion registered voters—and what a rebuke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Voters appear to have returned his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to power but with a much-diminished majority in parliament.
As of Tuesday evening, the BJP and allied parties were on track to win 290 seats in the 543-seat parliament. But the BJP’s tally fell to about 240, well short of the outright majorities the party won in 2019 and 2014. Mr. Modi had said he wanted to swell the BJP majority to 400 seats. The big gains came for the coalition led by the Congress Party, which is on track to beat expectations with about 230 seats.
Economic issues dominated the campaign in the developing country where rapid growth is essential to lift hundreds of millions out of poverty. Mr. Modi often is characterized as “pro-business,” but Indians wonder where the results are. Official data point to GDP growth of some 8% in the last fiscal year, but this owes more to government spending than the private consumption and investment that give voters confidence in the future. National unemployment is 8% or so by one measure, and urban unemployment among young people is 17%.
One of Mr. Modi’s campaign mistakes was failing to offer voters a vision for escaping this malaise. He instead touted various handouts such as food subsidies introduced during the pandemic. Voters can see such giveaways aren’t improving their economic prospects. Mr. Modi’s failure is inexplicable given the natural advantages India enjoys. Those include a large, young, and increasingly educated population that should attract companies seeking to diversify supply chains from China.
What also didn’t work as planned for Mr. Modi: appeals to Hindu nationalism. This aspect of his political method, characterized as ethnic chauvinism by his critics, became a key part of his electoral campaign. One of the “accomplishments” he touted was construction of a Hindu temple in the city of Ayodhya on a site that had previously been a mosque.
Sectarian messages retain some sway in a country marked by complex and sometimes violent ethnic and religious conflicts. But this election result suggests the limits of putting identity politics before rising incomes. The Modi government has also alienated some voters with its crackdown on press freedom.
The BJP might have done worse if not for the increasing radicalism of the Congress Party. Congress under de facto leader Rahul Gandhi promised expanded grain handouts, caste-based quotas in some jobs and education, and a government hiring binge. Voter skepticism about that program will let Mr. Modi hang onto power, which should be a lesson to parties of the left that it’s more effective to tack toward the center.
The election result suggests that Indians have high expectations for their leaders, and have again used the world’s largest democracy to warn those leaders to do better. The question now will be whether Mr. Modi takes this election warning to heart, or retreats into even more sectarian and authoritarian methods.
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