The bad news: Israel has been unable to shut down Hamas. The good news: They have a whole new opportunity to kick some Hezbollah ass! I bet that's going to go well.
Go team!
Israel and Hezbollah Move Closer to Full-Scale War
Despite efforts to keep hostilities in check, officials on both sides are sounding warnings
By Dov Lieber, Adam Chamseddine and Carrie Keller-Lynn, WSJ
Updated June 5, 2024 5:49 am ET
Israel and Hezbollah are moving closer to a full-scale war after months of escalating hostilities with the Lebanese militant group, adding pressure on Israel’s government to secure its northern border.
Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization closely aligned with Iran, opened a battle front with Israel on Oct. 8, a day after the deadly Hamas-led raid inside Israel sparked the current war in Gaza.
Hezbollah says that its attacks are in support of the Palestinians and that it won’t stop until Israel ceases its war in Gaza. Reluctant to open a second front, Israel initially responded to Hezbollah with tit-for-tat attacks, trying to calibrate its actions to avoid sparking a full-scale war.
But in recent weeks, both sides say there has been a sharp rise in hostilities. Hezbollah has increased its drone and rocket attacks, hitting important Israeli military installations. Israel, too, has stepped up attacks, targeting Hezbollah sites deep into southern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley as well as senior military officials in the group.
Without a cease-fire in Gaza and subsequent deal with Hezbollah that meets Israel’s requirements, Israeli officials say an offensive is inevitable.
Benny Gantz, a minister in Israel’s war cabinet, said Israel would return residents to northern Israel by Sept. 1—when schools restart—either “through a deal or through an escalation.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel was prepared to take “very strong action” against Hezbollah on Tuesday. “Whoever thinks he can hurt us and we will sit and do nothing is making a big mistake.”
Wildfires sparked by Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks raged through northern Israel beginning Sunday. The blaze was largely contained by Tuesday morning and caused few injuries. But images spurred demands in Israel that after about eight months of low-intensity warfare with Hezbollah, which has left more than 60,000 Israelis displaced from their homes, the government needs to go on the offensive.
“They are burning here, we need to burn all of Hezbollah’s strongholds and destroy them. War!” said Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s far-right national security minister, during a visit Tuesday to Kiryat Shmona, an Israeli city affected by the blaze. It has been largely depopulated because of the war and under constant bombardment from Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The U.S. and France have been working on creating the outlines of a diplomatic solution to the conflict, shuttling between Israel and Lebanon for months.
The talks aim to move Hezbollah’s forces over 6 miles north of Israel, past the Litani River, and the influx of either the Lebanese military or international forces into the area could enforce the removal of the militants from the border area, according to diplomats briefed on the talks. Israel and Lebanon would also negotiate pre-existing border disputes.
Lebanese officials didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Pulling back forces would keep Hezbollah out of antitank missile range of Israeli communities and prevent the threat that Hezbollah could carry out its long-held threat to invade and conquer northern Israel.
Many Israelis from northern Israel say that a cease-fire isn’t enough to bring them back to their homes.
Giora Zaltz, head of the Israeli regional district bordering with Lebanon, said that the main two threats his constituents fear are a Hamas-style invasion into their territory by Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces and shoulder-launched missiles that Israel can’t easily intercept. Alleviating their fears requires pushing Hezbollah forces and armaments several miles into Lebanese territory, which Zaltz said requires either an enforceable diplomatic solution or military action.
Without this, he said, citizens won’t return to their homes. “The border will move farther and farther south,” he said.
Hezbollah, which is also a powerful political party in Lebanon, says it won’t agree to any diplomatic deal with Israel until the war in Gaza is halted. Despite a fresh push from President Biden for a cease-fire in Gaza, there are significant challenges left for getting there, and Israel says it will keep fighting in Gaza at some level until the end of the year.
Hassan Fadlallah, a member of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, said the main message behind Hezbollah’s operations is that the group is ready for a full-scale war with Israel and will fight without any rules or limits.
“We have called for a cease-fire in Gaza and we don’t intend to widen the war, but if Netanyahu decides to expand the war, it won’t be a walk in the park,” he said.
Many Israelis from the northern part of the country say they don’t trust Hezbollah to stick to any agreement, and instead want Israel to remove Lebanese villages close to the border, where Hezbollah fighters live and could return under the guise of civilians. Otherwise, they say, many won’t return to their homes.
“We gave our chance to the diplomatic approach in 2006,” said an Israeli border-community resident, Nissan Ze’evi. “It became a total failure.” Only a military solution, he said, would make his family feel safe enough to go home.
Hezbollah was supposed to disarm and stay away from Israel’s border under the terms of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed after a summer war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
But Israeli officials say that, rather than pulling back, Hezbollah has amassed an arsenal of more than 150,000 rockets and missiles there, along with thousands of battle-hardened infantrymen.
A Hezbollah official said that Israel has been continuously violating U.N. Resolution 1701 with aerial, naval and land incursions into Lebanese territory.
More than 100,000 Lebanese have been displaced from their homes because of the fighting, and many rely on financial support from Hezbollah. Najib Bajouk, a resident of the border town of Aita el Shaab, left his hometown in October following attacks between Hezbollah and Israel. He now lives in the city of Tyre with his wife and three children. “My house was completely destroyed due to Israeli targeting of the town, but the moment the cease-fire is reached I plan to go back and rebuild it,” he said.
Netanyahu, during a visit to northern Israel in May, said Israel had surprises planned for Hezbollah, but wouldn’t reveal them to Israel’s enemies.
Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security adviser in Israel, said Israel could opt for the smaller goal of pushing Hezbollah past the Litani River, or take the opportunity to disarm Hezbollah and remove the threat of its short-range rocket arsenal, which can overwhelm Israel’s air defenses.
Either choice, he said, would likely spark a full-scale war, one that would lead to a “level of destruction that will be unprecedented in Israeli history.”
After about eight months of fighting, Hezbollah is still able to move its forces closer and farther from Israel’s border as needed, according to an Israeli air force intelligence officer.
Each side has learned about the other’s weaknesses, the officer said, while trying to avoid making any moves that could spark a full-scale war.
“Both sides are preparing and ready if something will happen,” the officer said.
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