Jim Rickards is a political analyst who's got a compelling way to look at the election. I think he's got it right. In case you don't want to watch this 30 min video, I'll cut to the chase.
Unlike the RNC which has no teeth, the Dem Nat Committee (DNC) is powerful. They derailed Bernie S in 2016 & again in 2020. Are they going to let the party's future ride on a deteriorating/deep wounded Biden? Don't count on it.
Biden will likely announce he won't be running in May or June, thereby releasing his delegates of which about 1/3rd are super delegates (non-elected DNC members). They may choose Illinois Gov Fatso but Newsom is the overwhelming favorite.
One on one (even though Newsom is a complete douchebag) he likely edges out Trump who's locked up the GOP nomination.
But it's not going to be a simple one on one. Like the election of 1912 where Teddy Roosevelt tanked Taft allowing Wilson to win, or 1992 when Ross Perot cost Bush the election, independents will crush Newsom's chances.
Who are these independents (all of whom draw votes away from the Dem nominee)? Mainly Joe Manchin &/or Robert Kennedy (33% of registered Dems polled would support him as an independent over the nominee).
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