Ok, put a gun to my head. You demand I pick a winner today. Fine...Voldemort. You happy?
Why? Too busy to read my report yesterday (it's below you ignoramus). But wait! There's more.
Check out the chart below Grasshopper. For the first time in 20 years, numerous polls show more Americans now identify as Republican than Democrat. I identify as a monkey.
This phenomenon has caused a sizeable shift in voter registration in swing states reducing the Dem edge in three by more than Biden's margin of victory in 2020.
Ergo, people in the swing states who shifted their party are likely Donald voters. That says to me that the Dark Lord may prevail in the swing states putting him in the Oval office. Unless I'm wrong (49% chance).
What’s going to happen tomorrow?
How the hell should I know?
Just kidding. I'm all over this (unless I’m wrong). There are three ways to evaluate: Common sense, betting platforms, and polling data.
Master of the obvious. In 2020 Biden offered a Bill Clinton-like centrist alt to Voldemort. A much-welcomed chance to tone down the craziness. Joe came in without any major flaws and seemed a safe reasonable choice. Despite that the election was close to a virtual tie.
This time, Kamala is saddled with Biden's track record, which includes crime, immigration, high prices & DEI. Additionally, the Dem's attempts to remove Donald from the landscape have strengthened his brand. It's inconceivable that Trump won't outperform 2020. He only needs a little nudge to win.
The understandable Trump women’s voting gap (Roe v Wade) may be insufficiently large to derail his "evilness". The fact that Kamala is only getting 55% of women’s vote is the surprise.
Betting platforms: have historically been the best predictor of election outcomes, not polls. These have tightened up in the last 72 hours. Polymarket and Kashi still has Trump ahead (8 &17 points, respectively), PredictIt has a virtual tie. Biden was ahead in the betting markets by 6+ points in 2020.
Polling data: All but 7 states lean red or blue. These swing states typically determine the election and the aggregate polling data show it could go either way. There are huge disparities among differing pollsters! Factoid: Trump has outperformed the polls by 3-4% in each of the last three elections.
Ok you want specifics? Two of the seven swing states look to be going to go to Harris (Wisc and Michigan/25 electoral votes). NC, Georgia, Ariz, Nevada likely are going to Trump. If Voldemort wins Penn or one of Wisc/Mich he's president. If not BAM.
How about Congress? The Senate is going GOP, the House is too close to call.
For all you conspiracy theorists: Had Trump not debated Biden pre-convention and picked Haley he'd have handily won (against Joe). If Trump does lose he has himself to blame, not the Deep State.
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