Majority Now See Another Depression Ahead

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Majority Now See Another Depression Ahead

Tuesday, June 07, 2022

Rasmussen Polling

Americans are worried about the stock market and a majority now think the U.S. could soon face another Great Depression.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 55% of American Adults believe it is likely the United States will enter a 1930s-like depression over the next few years, including 25% who think another Great Depression is Very Likely. That’s the highest finding in regular surveying since 2009. Thirty-four percent (34%) now don’t think another depression is likely, while 11% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon made headlines last week when he warned investors to “brace yourself” for an economic “hurricane” approaching. Only 28% believe the stock market be higher a year from now, while 33% think it will be lower. Twenty percent (20%) expect the stock market to be about the same a year from now, while another 19% are not sure.

Only 20% think today’s children will be better off than their parents, while a majority (56%) believe today’s children will be worse off than their parents. Twenty-five percent (25%) are not sure. The number who think children will be better off has declined from 28% in 2018.

The survey of 1,000 U.S. American Adults was conducted on May 11-12, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Fewer women (23%) than men (32%) believe the stock market will be higher a year from now, and women (17%) are also less likely than men (22%) to believe today’s children will be better off than their parents. More women (58%) than men (53%) think it is at least somewhat likely the United States will enter a 1930s-like depression over the next few years.

Americans under 40 are generally more optimistic than their elders about the economic future. Men under 40 are most likely to expect a higher stock market a year from now.

Republicans (48%) are more likely than Democrats (24%) or those not affiliated with either major party (30%) to believe the stock market will be lower a year from now. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Republicans think another Great Depression is likely in the next few years, but only 42% of Democrats and 54% of the unaffiliated agree.

Blacks (25%) are more likely than whites (18%) or other minorities (20%) to believe today’s children will be better off than their parents.

More government employees (35%) than private sector workers (28%) expect the stock market to be higher a year from now.

Married Americans are more likely than their unmarried peers to think today’s children will be better off than their parents.

Americans in the highest income category – those making more than $200,000 a year – are most confident the stock market will be higher a year from now.

Negative views about the economy tend to reflect general pessimism about the future. Among Americans who consider a 1930s-style depression Very Likely in the next few years, only 14% believe today’s children will be better off than their parents, while among those who think another Great Depression is Not At All Likely, 46% say today’s children will be better off.

Congress is considering a huge pay increase for federal employees, but a plurality of Americans think government workers are already better off than employees in the private sector.

The 2022 midterm elections are now just five months away, and Republicans have an eight-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.