NY GOP governor candidate Bruce Blakeman trails Hochul by just 4 points in shocking new poll

Could NY be waking up? I'll believe it when I see it.

NY GOP governor candidate Bruce Blakeman trails Hochul by just 4 points in shocking new poll

By Carl Campanile, NY Post

Published July 28, 2026

Gov. Kathy Hochul leads her Republican opponent Bruce Blakeman by just 4 percentage points, according to a bombshell new poll.

Just 47% of those surveyed said they’d back the Democratic incumbent, compared to 43% who supported the Nassau County executive, with 10% of registered voters undecided, the poll, conducted by a pro-Blakeman super PAC found.

Only 38% of respondents said they viewed Hochul favorably — and 58% unfavorably — in a survey of 2,000 registered voters conducted by pollster Red Oak Strategic for the “Strong and Safe” super PAC.

Meanwhile, only 39% of voters approved of Hochul’s job performance compared to 56% who disapproved.

Anti-incumbent fever is running high, according to the poll, a summary of which was obtained by The Post.

Only 33% of voters say Hochul, who is seeking a second full, four-year term, deserves re-election while 61% say it is time to give someone else a chance, according to the survey, conducted from July 7–12.

“The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track,” Red Oak Strategic said in its July 21 polling memo to “interested parties.”

Blakeman is viewed favorably by 30% of voters and 23% unfavorably — while 47% of voters have never heard of him or have no opinion, with less than 100 days until the Nov. 3 general election.

Still, Blakeman’s supporters see an opening given Hochul’s soft support.

The survey found that 57% of voters said things in New York are on the wrong track while just 33% of respondents said the state is going in the right direction.

A majority of voters cited “cost of living/inflation” and the “economy/jobs/taxes” as their top issues, followed by a third who mentioned public safety.

Nearly six in 10 voters — 57% — blamed politicians for cost-of-living woes, compared to 35% who blamed corporations.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul speaking at a press conference on technology addiction.

As for personal finances, 43% of voters say they are worse off than a year ago; while only 15% are better off, with the rest saying about the same, according to the survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

The survey also indicated that Hochul is underwater with independent voters — which could boost Blakeman.

“Hochul opens at 47–43 (Hochul +4%) with 10% undecided. Blakeman already leads independents 54%–33%, holds Republicans 83–10, and runs strongest in the suburbs (51%),” the polling memo said.

But Hochul has a massive fundraising advantage.

“Friends for Kathy Hochul” reported it had $21 million on hand ahead of the election, according to recent filings, plus an additional $22 million in the state Democratic Party’s account.

That’s more than four times the amount Blakeman and the state Republican Party have generated.

Pro-Blakeman super PACs such as Strong and Safe — which is backed by MSG owner James Dolan — could help raise millions of dollars to help counter incumbent Hochul’s fundraising advantage during the campaign’s home stretch.

The Dolan-led MSG Entertainment and MSG Sports each donated $350,000, totaling $700,000, to the pro-Blakeman super PAC earlier this month, according to Strong and Safe’s recent campaign filings.

MSG has donated $2 million to the Coalition to Restore New York, a group created by Dolan in 2021, which in turn gave $300,000 to Strong and Safe.

Red Oak’s turnout model projected 5.9 million voters will cast ballots — about 44% of 13.5 million registered voters.

The survey claimed 73% of Republicans are much more interested in this governor’s race than in the previous ones, compared to 44% of Democrats — a 29-point enthusiasm gap.

But Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2 to 1 in the Empire State, while about 25% of voters are independent or not enrolled with a political party.

The poll also conspicuously ignored the elephant in the room — Blakeman’s pal, President Trump — who is deeply unpopular in blue-leaning New York, according to other polls.

History is not kind to the party of the president in power during midterm congressional elections.

In 2018 during Trump’s first midterm, then-Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo won re-election in a landslide over Republican challenger Marc Molinaro, while Democrats picked up US House seats and took control of the state Senate in a blue wave election.

Hochul in 2022 defeated former Long Island Rep. Lee Zeldin, the current US Environmental Protection Administrator, by just 6 percentage points — a race that occurred during former Democratic President Joe Biden’s midterm.

Other surveys have had Hochul comfortably ahead of Blakeman by double digits.

A Siena College poll released in late June showed Hochul leading Blakeman by 20 percentage points — 52% to 32%.

But another poll conducted by a conservative-leaning group earlier this month showed Hochul leading Blakeman by just 6 points — 47% to 41% among likely general election voters.

That survey was conducted by the firm co/efficient for the right-leaning, pro-Blakeman “Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers.”