Peter Zeihan (the global economist) calls the winner of the 2024 election.

Whether you agree with everything he says, he's a very original thinker who generally backs up what he says with strong logical arguments and facts. Worth listening to the dets!

Short version: Trump has enough of a following to win the Repub nomination by splitting the vote (unless he goes 1 on 1 with DeSantis which ain't happening). Even if DeSantis were to win the nomination, Trump would likely run later as an independent and tank him.

The Dem centrists are going to make sure Biden gets the nomination (unless he drops dead or starts dribbling at press conferences).

So it's probably Trump v Biden again, and if the 22 midterms were any indication, Biden will win. Ergo, independent voters in the midterms didn't buy what the Republicans were selling (usually, the non-president party kicks ass at midterms/not this time).

The only way we don't get Biden (this is all Snitzer thinking). Trump gets convicted (or drops dead) and sentenced before the election, can't run, and DeSantis, as part of his platform, agrees to pardon Trump. That's very very long shot (but fun to contemplate).

In any event, get ready for 6 more years of dementia.

BTW: If I were a Democrat, the last thing I'd want is for Trump to end up in prison. Else, Biden faces DeSantis and loses.