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Signs of a Weakening Job Market, in Five Charts

Listen, you're lucky you have a job at all. How about shutting the f-ck up and getting back to your desk! Yes, you have to come into work. Go f-ck yourself.


No these aren't micro-aggressions...I being a full-fledged asshole...suck it.


Signs of a Weakening Job Market, in Five Charts

Available jobs fell in October to the lowest level since early 2021

By Austen Hufford, WSJ

Updated Dec. 5, 2023

(4 min)

The unemployment rate has edged higher this year.


The hot labor market that underpinned a surprisingly strong economy this year is showing signs of cooling, an indication that growth could ease in 2024.


The number of available jobs at the end of October was the lowest since March 2021, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Fewer openings come as the unemployment rate has edged higher this year, Americans are taking longer to find new jobs, and wage growth is slowing.


The November jobs report, out Friday, could provide additional clues about if the historically tight labor market is loosening further.


Less help wanted

Job openings fell 617,000 in October to 8.7 million. That level is well down from a record high of 12 million in March 2022, though higher than before the pandemic began.

There are still plenty of jobs available—more than the 6.5 million unemployed Americans seeking work—but that gap has narrowed. The job openings rate has trended down this year while the unemployment rate moved up. The relationship between the two readings—an economics concept known as the Beveridge curve—has moved close to prepandemic readings after trending well higher for the past two and half years. That adds to signs the labor market is normalizing.

The number of open jobs in insurance, real estate and retail have all declined over the past year. One ominous sign: Businesses have said they need fewer extra workers for holiday jobs this fall.



Workers quit quitting

The jump in resignations earlier in the pandemic recovery has dissipated. Economists see a declining rate of quitting as a sign workers are less certain about the labor market or that they are more satisfied with their current roles.


In October, the quits rate held steady from the prior month at 2.3%, but has trended down since touching 3% in April 2022.


Workers might have good reason not to leave their jobs without another lined up. The rate of hiring ticked lower in October from the prior month, extending a slow decline this year, suggesting employers are less desperate to fill roles.




Hiring slows down

Employers have added 239,000 jobs a month on average this year through October. That is a slowdown from nearly 400,000 a month in 2022 and more than 600,000 in 2021. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate that this cooling trend continued in November, with payrolls growing by 190,000. The Labor Department will release figures on Friday.

Hiring has eased this year as the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates to a 22-year high this summer to combat inflation. That action has slowed the housing market and business investment, which has follow-on effects on the labor market. There are exceptions: Healthcare hiring is booming. The government and leisure and hospitality employers are also adding jobs at a solid clip.



Raises are getting smaller

When businesses were desperate to find employees in recent years, they offered workers some of the best raises of their careers. Now that companies appear less eager to hire, wage growth has cooled.

Pay gains remain above historic levels, and this year wages are rising faster than prices after falling behind earlier in the pandemic recovery. Slower wage growth can help cool inflation, especially for labor-intensive services.



Finding a job gets harder

More people are having trouble finding a job when they are laid off. Nearly two million Americans have been applying for continuing unemployment benefits in recent weeks, the most in about two years, according to the Labor Department. The level is still historically low and just approaching the prepandemic average.

Similarly, the unemployment rate remains very low. Economists estimate it held at 3.9% in November. But it has risen by a half-percentage point since the spring. Such an increase usually comes right before a recession.



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