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Snitz explains Ukraine's summer war (3 maps)

snitzoid

Team Biden/Harris describes the war as Ukraine's valiant stand against tyranny to protect the future of NATO states. They credit our help with saving Ukraine from annihilation. They further promise Putin will continue if left unchecked to occupy the entire country after which point they will invade Poland, Hungary so on and so forth.


Of course that's a complete load of crap. First off, Putin has made it crystal clear he's willing to end this "thing" at the current border he occupies. His objective is and has always been to control a buffer zone protecting his flank. That buffer zone is called the Donbas. It's occupied by Russian-speaking citizens who consider themselves Russians NOT Ukrainians. That area also is home to Ukraine's oil and mineral assets (in particular Lithium). Putin controls that entire area and has been slowly expanding that area of occupation all summer.


He's won. It's over. This is just like Vietnam. We will never win or push Putin back. Not now, not ever. He's willing to run out the clock until we run out of gas. Meanwhile, his popularity is soaring as are his efforts to occupy the Donbas in Mother Russia.


As for saving Ukraine, the US has needlessly prolonged this war which has turned the nation into a burned-out cinder. 40% of the population has fled their homes, half of which has left out the bombed-out cities. With friends like us, who needs enemies.


Summer battles

Andrew E. Kramer headshotJosh Holder headshot

By Andrew E. Kramer and Josh Holder, NY Times

Sept 13, 2024


Andrew visited the fronts. Josh tracked troop movements and made the maps.



Not long ago, a Ukrainian officer at an artillery position on the eastern front shared a telling detail with The Times. His crew, sweaty and covered in dust, was firing a howitzer at a coal mine it had occupied until just days earlier. Now they were losing ground, and the Russians held the mine.


Not since the early months of the war have front lines shifted as swiftly as they have in the past several weeks. In northeastern Ukraine last month, the country’s military staged a surprise attack into Russia and quickly captured about 500 square miles. At the same time, Russian troops pressed ahead with their offensive toward the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, advancing by more than a mile on some days. Yesterday, they were on the city’s doorstep.


In today’s newsletter, we’ll examine the new battlefield maps, and we’ll explain why each front is so volatile.


The eastern front

For more than a year, the lines often shifted only yards per day, despite fierce fighting. Troops were dug into well-fortified lines that led to comparisons to World War I. Then, in February, Russia broke through a dense maze of Ukrainian defenses in the city of Avdiivka, an industrial city that had been a Ukrainian stronghold since 2014.


Russia then had a path to the west through Ukraine’s fallback lines. The advances have since continued, sporadically. Russia ground through defensive positions in fields east of Pokrovsk, a city built around a crucial road and railroad junction, this summer.



A detailed map of Russia’s territorial gains near Pokrovsk, a key rail and road hub, in the Donbas region of Ukraine.

Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times


The artillery team near the coal mine held a position typical for Ukrainian forces. It was tucked into a grove of trees for camouflage. It overlooked a vast open farm field. The fields, the small villages and the several reservoirs on the Pokrovsk front provide few natural barriers against infantry attacks or sources of cover from Russian artillery and aerial bombs.


Since April, Russian troops passed five lines of Ukrainian fortifications. Only two now remain between the front line and the city, Pokrovsk’s military administrator told me.


Police cars drove on the city’s streets, blaring orders for residents to evacuate. Its fall would cut key supply lines for Ukraine into the Donbas region and ease Russia’s potential march westward.


The northern front




A detailed map showing the extent of Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. Three bridges over the Seym River have been blown up by Ukraine to partly isolate Russian soldiers.


Source: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project | Note: As of Sept. 8 | By The New York Times


Ukraine realized it was losing ground in the east. Rather than fight on ineffectively there, on Russia’s terms, Ukraine responded with a risky surprise attack in the north. Troops surged into Russia, hoping to draw forces away from the battle for Pokrovsk.


So far at least, it has not worked. Russia still presses ahead in eastern Ukraine. Yet Ukrainian troops have quickly opened a new front in the war. It captured about a hundred settlements near the border, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Ukraine’s military broke through thin border defenses manned mostly by young conscripts. Then soldiers advanced along two rivers, keeping the water as a protective barrier along one flank. Their gains have yet to be tested in a serious counterattack.


Some of the tactics are similar in both theaters. As Russia has sought to encircle Ukrainian troops in the Donbas, Ukraine has tried the same in Russia. It has blown up bridges over the Seym River to isolate Russian soldiers in a pocket between the water and the Ukrainian border. As Russia tried to build pontoon crossings over the river in recent weeks, Ukraine blew them up with long-range strikes.


It’s not a given that this period of quick changes will continue. Going into the fall, the questions are whether Ukraine can defend the Russian territory it captured and whether Russia’s troops can continue on the offensive without a pause to rearm and regroup. The answers will help determine both the future of the war and any potential peace deal.

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