Talk about a sh-t show! Problems galore, BUT, I believe we may be en route to some improvement.
How quickly? Depends on whether progressives continue to run Washington. Mr. Mean is favored in the polls to win. The silver lining to this cloud? It’s now more likely we’ll have a secure border, bring closure to two pointless wars, and begin to act more supportively toward honest business development.
The pendulum is swinging away from racial identity politics towards a fair playing field for all. We have an oversized pile of national debt, but we also have the opportunity to grow GDP which may help whittle this mountain down, albeit not overnight. Am I saying the stock market &/or housing market won’t correct or some rough sledding isn’t ahead? NO!
So what factors make me think America’s economic engine is getting more powerful? #1 We’ve been in rough waters many times before. Things looked pretty bad during the Great Depression, the Vietnam War, and in 2008. We punched our way out of those troughs. I suspect we’ll do it again.
Our chief economic competitor China, has run out of gas. For the past 15 years, China pumped 250 million new skilled tech, manufacturing and service workers into the Global economy. That compared with only 60 million for the US and EU combined. This massive supply of new labor fueled the expansion of China’s urban real estate growth and export economy. It’s also made it rough for the US to compete in many areas of manufacturing.
Those days are over. China’s cities are tapped out. No new workers moving in. Their real estate market is about to crash and their wage rates have risen 900% (not a typo). Plus they are driving over a demographic cliff, with too few workers and over a third of their citizens soon to be over 65. Taking care of these geezers may eventually spiral their economy into a nose dive*.
The EU is experiencing its own demographic crisis. Almost all NATO members have rapidly aging populations, too few workers, and no place to find cheap labor. Germany will be the first to get punched in the nose. Others will follow.
There are other Asian Tigers (South Korea, Japan) that will continue to thrive, but not at the expense of Americans.
That leaves the US. Through decades of Mexican immigration, we have a much healthier demographic picture. Ergo plenty of workers, not too many geriatrics. We still have the best R&D in the world, an exploding tech sector, and an ace in the hole…Mexico. Mexico provides an endless supply of skilled workers to plug into our supply chain. Together we’ll become an even more formidable global powerhouse. We’ll do the high-end development and manufacturing. Mexico can do assembly and important but less complex tasks. No other proximate dynamic duo has this one/two punch.
BTW, our shared border with Mexico helps facilitate easy shipping. For China and other nations, the oceans will become increasingly treacherous & more expensive places to cross as the US pulls back from funding its policing of those waterways. Think the Houthi Rebels are bad? Get ready for more of the same.
Did I mention unlike China and the EU we are completely energy-independent? And the cost of natural gas here is 75% less.
So am I going to continue to have a mushroom cloud atop the Spritzler Report? You bet. But I think the next 3 decades are going to be good ones for the United States.
*Xi Jinping knows this and knows that America is its best customer for its export-driven economy. The opportunity to collaborate with a weakened China is unprecedented. China is a pivotal player to bring peace to Ukraine and stop Iran’s terrorist ambitions. The US can and should promise to provide oil/natural gas to China if needed, so that China can bring Putin & Iran to the bargaining table. If you control Russia and Iran’s (Petro states) oil revenues you can influence their aggressive behavior.