For the first time, Israel has the world’s support to enter occupied territories and destroy Hamas without mercy. That means crossing into Gaza with heavy mechanized units, artillery, and air support.
At the same time, it’s critical they maintain positive public support, particularly that of neighboring Arab states (notably Saudi Arabia with whom they have recently opened diplomatic relations). Iran undoubtedly sponsored the Hamas attack with the hopes that an Israeli response would produce innocent Palestinian casualties sufficient to quickly turn public opinion against Israel and isolate them from their Arab neighbors.
Ergo, Israel needs to thread the needle, no small task, else they risk falling into Iran’s trap. Both Hamas and Hezbollah shrewdly embed themselves into vast populations of Palestinian civilians whom they terrorize, exploit, and rule with an iron fist. Destroying the bad guys while protecting innocents is not easy.
This crisis has also had a profound signaling effect on the Ukraine War. Within hours of the attack, Biden was quick to support Israel and link their plight to Ukraine’s efforts to defend themselves. Ergo support our continuing interest there.
Then something remarkable happened. Yesterday Israel asked for the US to ship 150mm artillery shells. We indicated (correctly) that our stockpiles of large artillery have been completely depleted in Ukraine, which also sent Zelenskyy a slightly different message; "Your military support from us is waning".
Then Poland dropped the big hammer. As you might be aware, Poland borders Ukraine and has been Putin’s most vocal antagonist & saber rattler during the invasion. Yesterday Poland agreed to send its remaining stockpile of large artillery pieces to Israel. Ergo, saying to Ukraine "we’re kind of done with you". Which signals that NATO is also done. Unlike Biden who wants to extend this, NATO citizens realize the war is lost and don’t want to further a losing cause at their expense.
Zelenskyy realized what was happening politically and in a press conference (hours later) suggested that Russia conspired with Iran to foment and support the Hamas attack…to (yes, he said this) divert resources away from his war. Is that the case? I seriously doubt that.
One thing’s for sure, not only did Hamas provide political cover for NATO to say adios to Zelenskyy, but the global price of Russian oil within one day (already at its highest level in a year) shot up another 10%. Ergo, Putin’s piggy bank just grew.
I pray Israel plays this shrewdly and wins big (for the Tribe and anyone else who’s not a dirtbag).
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