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Spritzler Ukraine report: What's surprising & not!

What's not surprising:

Putin's a cruel nutball who's had his eye on Ukraine for decades. In case you missed during his 2005 State of the Union speech Vlad remarked "the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century...as for the Russian people it became a genuine tragedy.  Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory".


Ukraine is a buffer state which means that leaning towards NATO is going to piss off the Bear.  Pointing new mid-range missiles and hypersonic missiles at Russia since 2019 also honks off the Bear.


Meanwhile, the Eurozone has decided to become completely dependent on this psychopath for the majority of its energy, especially Germany.  They've been paying more attention to going green with Greta Thornburg.


So should anybody be surprised that things have gone to sh-t?  


BTW:  all the press about the terrible impact that sanctions and being isolated is having on Putin is bullcrap.  He knows and Europe knows at the end of the day they need to buy energy from him.  So the pain he's feeling is temporary (like his 2014 invasion of the Crimea).  He'll ignore.


What is surprising:

Putin always figured installing a new government in Ukraine would be relatively easy.  Belarius has gone along as did the Crimea.  He never imagined the pushback of the Ukrainian public would be this fierce.  


That leaves him with two options.  Turn Ukraine's major cities into Dresden or negotiate his way out of it. Who knows which choice he'll make.  If he goes with the former, he'll earn a lifetime of guerilla activity as the Ukrainians will never forgive him.  He'll also cause Europe in earnest to find other alt energy sources, not good for Vlad's long-term business plan. Finally, Xi Jinping cares about optics, and turning Kiev into a burnt cinder doesn't help China's role as a Putin supporter.


What Putin should do?  Agree to pull out and leave Ukraine alone, providing they agree not to join NATO/ European Union and work out a mutual missile disarmament pact with NATO.  Everybody saves face.

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