According to Pew Research, about 63% of American favor access in all/most cases. This varies by religion and party affiliation. 41% of GOP folks favor access and 85% of Dems. As for religious groups: White evangelical 25%, non evangelical 64%, Black protestant 71%, Catholics 59%, unaffiliated 86%.
Voters Are Poised to Reshape Abortion Access, From Missouri to Montana
Ten states are set to vote on ballot measures that could restore points of access in the South and elsewhere
By Laura Kusisto and Jennifer Calfas, WSJ
Nov. 3, 2024 5:00 am ET
Abortion-rights groups are on track to secure constitutional protections for the procedure in as many as 10 states on Tuesday, which would mark the most significant expansion of abortion access since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Polling data and fundraising totals have signaled strong support for most of the ballot initiatives, which appear in states with a range of political leanings. The measure that could have the biggest practical impact comes from Florida, which had been an island of abortion access in the South until a six-week ban went into effect in May of this year. But it is also the toughest test because supporters need to reach a 60% threshold for passage.
Other states that could see major changes are Missouri and South Dakota, both of which have strict abortion bans currently in place.
Voters in the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada also could decide to enshrine abortion rights there. Democrats are hoping the measures will help drive turnout and deliver a presidential victory for Kamala Harris. Arizona currently limits the procedure to 15 weeks of pregnancy, about two months earlier than what was allowed under Roe. Nevada already allows abortion up to 24 weeks, but supporters say a constitutional amendment would cement those rights.
Some 17 states now ban abortion after the earliest weeks of pregnancy. Most of the ballot measures would restore access through fetal viability, or about halfway through a typical pregnancy—although opponents argue that the initiatives are so broadly worded that they would allow abortion throughout pregnancy.
“What’s very clear across all campaigns is that people don’t want the government involved in private medical decisions. That’s been this uniting force,” said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of the Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, a nonprofit that promotes progressive ballot measures.
Abortion-rights supporters already have used ballot initiatives to override conservative legislatures, winning seven consecutive measures since Roe was overturned. In some of the states being contested now, groups favoring abortion access are fundraising at a clip that far outpaces their opponents, including in Florida where they have pulled in more than $100 million.
Polling on ballot measures has been more limited than in the presidential contest and other high-profile races. Antiabortion groups say they have seen some late fundraising momentum and remain optimistic they could pull out a win in some of these states, especially Florida.
“Going into Election Day, we’re seeing ballot-measure races tighten in a way we haven’t in previous abortion-amendment fights,” said Kelsey Pritchard, director of state public affairs for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. She said abortion-rights supporters were using exaggerated scare tactics to suggest that women can never get abortions, even in grave emergencies.
Florida is a crucial battleground because before the overturning of Roe, it had the third-highest number of abortions in the U.S. After Roe’s downfall, Florida became one of the few access points in the South, and women often drove there overnight from places such as Louisiana and Texas.
That has changed since the six-week ban. The state has seen about 2,500 fewer in-person abortions each month, according to WeCount, an abortion-data project sponsored by the Society of Family Planning, which supports abortion rights. That has had ripple effects across the country, straining clinics in North Carolina and leading to a surge in demand for pills ordered online.
Abortion providers said women still sometimes travel to Florida from out of state only to find out they are too far along in pregnancy for the procedure. “It’s horrible news to have to deliver over and over and over again,” said Chelsea Daniels, a doctor at a Miami abortion clinic.
The antiabortion side has struggled to mount strong campaigns in states across the country, faced with donors pessimistic about the prospects for success. But in Florida it has an ally in Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has taken an unusually aggressive posture toward defeating the measure, calling it “radical” and “very, very extreme.” A state public-health agency has run information on its website defending the ability of women facing medical emergencies to obtain abortions under current law, and the Florida health department recently threatened criminal charges against television stations for running an ad in support of the measure, saying it was misleading.
Post Roe Era
A State-by-State Guide to Abortion Access in the U.S.
A State-by-State Guide to Abortion Access in the U.S.
“If we win in Florida, it will be because of his leadership, and it serves as a model going forward,” Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser said of DeSantis.
Abortion opponents also believe they can win in South Dakota, where they have a fundraising edge. Nebraska, meanwhile, presents the most complicated picture, because the state ballot includes two competing measures, one to protect abortion rights and the other to outlaw the procedure in most cases after the first trimester. That has the potential to muddy the waters.
Abortion-rights groups are optimistic that they can pull out a win in Missouri, the first state to enforce its near-total ban after the Supreme Court overturned Roe. They have a fundraising advantage, having pulled in about $30 million compared with about $5 million for their opponents.
Rachel Sweet, the campaign manager for Missourians for Constitutional Freedom, also has led successful abortion-rights ballot-measure campaigns in Kansas, Kentucky and Ohio, using messaging focused on freedom, medical privacy and individual choice.
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“In a state such as Missouri, you can’t win with just Democrats, right? There aren’t enough Democrats to do that,” Sweet said.
The Missouri campaign has featured distinctly religious messaging. Sweet’s group has run an ad featuring a pastor who says, “When a woman says an abortion is right for her, I believe that should be her decision, not the government’s.”
Cassidy Anderson, who is helping lead the campaign against the initiative, said that presenting abortion as a decision between a person and God is a miscalculation in Missouri. “That’s a poor choice. You’re going to be hard-pressed to find many Bible-believing churches that are going to believe that,” she said.
Write to Laura Kusisto at Laura.Kusisto@wsj.com and Jennifer Calfas at jennifer.calfas@wsj.com
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