Where's the worst RE bubble?

As much as I love Miami, these guys are leaving out many urban centers in China. Most real estate gurus figure there are between 65 and 90 million (Million!) unsold apartments in China's major cities right now.

Now that's a bubble!

Global Real Estate Bubble Risk in 2024

By Dorothy Neufeld, Visual Capitalist

Oct 10, 2024

In many major cities, real home prices have declined as high interest rates are dampening demand.

Simultaneously, property markets are slowing due to tough financing conditions and rising construction costs. As a result, housing bubble risks have eased in cities like Hong Kong, London, and New York. However, strong demand in the luxury market and a booming stock market are fueling bubble risks in cities like Miami and Los Angeles.

This graphic shows the cities with the highest real estate bubble risk, based on the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2024.

Methodology

To analyze real estate bubble risk, UBS looked at the following factors across 25 major cities:

Price-to-income ratio

Price-to-rent ratio

Change in mortgage-to-GDP ratio

Change in construction-to-GDP ratio

City-to-country price ratio

More specifically, bubble risk refers to the likelihood of a significant price correction due to distortions in global property markets

Miami Ranks Highest for Housing Bubble Risk

With real housing prices increasing nearly 50% since the end of 2019, Miami has the highest bubble risk across cities analyzed.

This has pushed the price-to-income ratio higher, as buyers compete for limited waterfront luxury properties. At the same time, the city’s relative affordability compared to other major U.S. metros, along with no state income tax and a favorable climate, has fueled demand.

Ranking in second is Tokyo, one of the most unaffordable cities in the world.

Ultra-loose monetary policy and economic stability has contributed to high property valuations in Tokyo. Last year, a 646 square foot apartment cost 15 times more than an average skilled worker’s salary, exceeding levels seen in London and New York.

Although Dubai hasn’t entered bubble territory, home prices surged 17% between Q2 2023 and Q2 2024—the fastest increase among the cities analyzed. Over the past year, the city saw record transaction volumes and strong population growth as buyers flocked to this global financial hub.

By contrast, a number of cities saw their bubble risk decline as real home values dropped, including London, Hong Kong, Paris, and Toronto.