Will an independant candidate help Biden or Trump?

It's probably Donald, Joe and Kennedy in a wacko three-way race that's Trump's to lose.

Trump's comment this week referring to Hezbollah as "smart" (ergo cagey and shrewd) shows he can still shoot himself in the foot. The only one who can realistically beat Trump is Trump. I have every confidence in his big mouth if he re-engages.

No Labels Won’t Help Trump

Our polling shows that a unity ticket would pull from both parties equally.

By Joe Lieberman, WSJ

Oct. 12, 2023 4:37 pm ET

As No Labels works to gain ballot access for a potential 2024 independent presidential ticket, most of the vitriol directed at us comes from the Democratic establishment, which is anxious that we’ll hurt President Biden and help elect Donald Trump. But if these concerns were well-founded, I wouldn’t be a part of this effort.

No Labels has spent almost two years conducting extensive polling and modeling to understand our potential effect on the race and what our path to victory could be, including a poll late last year of more than 25,000 registered voters nationwide. It found that a moderate independent ticket would pull equally from both parties: 14% from registered Republicans, 14% from registered Democrats. This finding is backed by precedent: Ross Perot pulled equally from both parties in 1992.

Of course, since No Labels would be nominating a unity ticket that could include a Republican and Democrat as running mates, much depends not only on who the candidates are, but the order in which they appear on the ticket. In July and August we tested how the partisan breakdown of the ticket would affect the race by surveying 10,000 registered voters in the top eight presidential battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The poll, conducted by HarrisX, found that a unity ticket led by a Republican presidential candidate had a stronger path to victory and drew more votes from Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden in seven states, with North Carolina the sole exception.

Who will be on our ticket is still an open question, and we are currently determining the process by which that will be decided. But one thing is certain: We stand by our original pledge that we will nominate a ticket only if the American people want it and if the polling is clear that we won’t be a spoiler.

For now, both conditions are being met. Our polling shows that an independent ticket has a legitimate and expanding path to victory. In December, 58% of registered voters said they’d be open to voting for a moderate independent ticket if Messrs. Trump and Biden were the alternatives. By the summer that figure had grown to 63%, and some of the most significant growth occurred among a segment of voters who could be described as liking Mr. Trump’s policies but not Mr. Trump.

For any who are skeptical of No Labels’s internal polling, let’s remember that poll after poll shows that two thirds of Americans don’t want a rematch of the 2020 election. A Gallup poll from October found that 63% of voters are open to a third party and that demand for an alternative is higher among Republicans than Democrats, suggesting that Mr. Trump could have more to lose from the entry of a viable third choice.

Of course, no one can know exactly what effect a third ticket would have, especially if you add a fourth or fifth ticket. While our data don’t indicate that No Labels would hurt Mr. Biden, it’s entirely plausible that Cornel West would, since he is running as a third party from the president’s left. Similarly, reports indicate that the Trump team is preparing attacks against Robert F. Kennedy Jr. after its polling found that his independent run could take votes from Mr. Trump.

No Labels’ opponents in the political establishment wrap themselves in high-flying rhetoric about protecting democracy when they are merely protecting their turf. This has been the two-party playbook for decades, and the resulting false binary choice hasn’t served our country well. It’s why a Pew Research Center poll last month found that support for both parties is at record lows, disgust and exhaustion with politics is at record highs, and voters are increasingly losing hope that it will get better.

In this environment, doing nothing is the greatest risk of all. No Labels is trying to do something to heal our broken politics. If we offer our ballot line to a presidential ticket in 2024, our purpose won’t be to spoil the election but to enable a unity ticket to win. That would be unprecedented—but what about today’s politics isn’t?

Mr. Lieberman is founding chairman of No Labels. A Democrat and independent, he served as a U.S. senator from Connecticut, 1989-2013.