Will Joe Manchin Run for President? Democrats Fear a Disaster.

We already have Robert Kennedy running as an independent perhaps soon to be joined by Joe. These guys will predominantly garner votes that would otherwise be for Biden. Additionally, Kamala scares the crap out of many in the electorate as the heir apparent if/when Joe croacks.

Will Joe Manchin Run for President? Democrats Fear a Disaster.

Centrist’s decision to not seek Senate re-election stirs speculation of a presidential bid as groups like No Labels seek alternatives to Biden and Trump

By Ken Thomas, WSJ

WASHINGTON—No Labels, the moderate political group, has been exploring the launch of a third-party presidential ticket next spring. A potential No. 1 draft pick just signaled he might be available.

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision not to seek re-election to the Senate next year has intensified questions about whether he might seek the presidency, either as an independent candidate or through the No Labels’ effort.

Manchin—a deal-making Democratic senator known for convening fellow lawmakers on “Almost Heaven,” his D.C.-based houseboat—has been associated with No Labels for more than a decade. The centrist group, which doesn’t disclose its donors, has been laying the groundwork to field an alternative presidential ticket if the 2024 campaign features a rematch of President Biden and former President Donald Trump, adding to fears among Democrats of a third-party spoiler candidate.

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The 76-year-old West Virginia senator, in announcing his decision, did little to quell speculation about any national ambitions, saying he would be “traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.” People close to Manchin said no decisions had been made on any coming national travel.

But Manchin’s announcement has stirred interest among No Labels’ supporters. “He’s speaking for the great silent majority of Americans who are basically looking for a home—as Joe Manchin is looking for a home,” said Philip Levine, a former Miami Beach, Fla., mayor who backs the group.

Biden, in a statement released Thursday by the White House, pointed to his work with Manchin on the $1 trillion infrastructure law along with measures to support veterans, promote gun safety, strengthen energy security and lower prescription drug costs. “I look forward to continuing our work together to get things done for the American people,” Biden said.

Manchin didn’t address his future Friday during an appearance in Athens, Ga., at a University of Georgia symposium honoring the late Sen. Johnny Isakson (R., Ga.). But Manchin spoke of their bipartisan work, themes that could form the basis of a future campaign. He noted that after the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, an evenly-divided Senate was able to come together to produce “one of the most productive times of Congress in history.”

“No one could be blamed. We had to work together,” Manchin said, appearing alongside former Sen. Roy Blunt (R., Mo.).

Democrats have warned that No Labels could help elect Trump and act as a spoiler to Biden’s re-election chances. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) said during a breakfast last week held by Third Way, a centrist group that has opposed No Labels’ efforts, that No Labels “is perilous to our democracy. I said that completely without any hesitation.”

Pelosi has warned that No Labels might prevent any presidential candidate from securing the necessary 270 electoral votes and would throw the election to the House of Representatives, giving each state delegation one vote for president—and where Republicans hold a majority in more state delegations.

“We have to make sure we have the numbers to win the election to save our democracy,” Pelosi said.

The fact that No Labels is spending millions of dollars to get on state ballots, but doesn’t disclose its donors, has also drawn criticism, particularly from Democrats who question the group’s motives. Republican real-estate developer Harlan Crow, whose friendship with conservative Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas has come under scrutiny, is among No Labels’ past financial supporters. The group’s leaders have said naming their donors would subject them to scrutiny and intimidation.

No Labels has pushed back against spoiler suggestions, and said that putting a Republican candidate atop the ticket might be more advantageous to winning the 2024 campaign.

Ryan Clancy, the chief strategist for No Labels, said in a briefing with reporters this week that polling conducted during the summer in the top eight battleground states found that a ticket led by a Republican had a stronger path to victory and pulled more votes from Trump’s column. But he said their process remains fluid.

“We certainly don’t have any standard we’re laying down yet about who’s going to be atop the ticket. But we’ll be doing more polling and research over time and that was certainly an interesting data point we saw over the summer,” he said.

If No Labels launches an independent candidate, it would join a crowded third-party field. Environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the nephew of President John F. Kennedy, has been running as an independent and some polling has shown him approaching 20% in a hypothetical matchup with Biden and Trump. Cornel West, an academic and activist who backed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’s campaigns, is also running as an independent.

And Jill Stein said Thursday that she would seek the Green Party’s nomination for president for the third time. In 2016, many Democrats accused Stein of hurting Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign by siphoning votes in key battlegrounds such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—all three of which were carried by Trump that year.

But gaining ballot access could serve as a major hurdle for Manchin or any other potential third-party candidate. Many states require the collection of thousands of signatures to get on the ballot, including signatures from individual counties and congressional districts, making it a difficult and complicated process.

Former Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon of Missouri, who is serving as No Labels’ director of ballot integrity, said in the briefing that the organization was on the ballot in 12 states and expected to gain ballot access in other states next year with the goal of reaching all 50 states. Clancy said the group has collected more than 800,000 signatures as part of its ballot access effort.

Clancy said the timeline for No Labels to field a candidate remains March or April 2024, but it would only pursue the campaign if it sees a clear pathway to victory. However, he reiterated that polling shows broad numbers of Americans interested in alternatives to Biden and Trump and are expressing an openness to a third-party candidate.

“If conditions are as they are today, and it is Trump and Biden and both of them are as politically weakened as they appear to be, we expect we’ll be putting up a ticket early next year,” Clancy said.

Annie Linskey contributed to this article.

Write to Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com