The watershed issue that can transform the national fortunes of the GOP is abortion. Thus far, since Roe v Wade's overturn, 7 states have had referendums on abortion. All have gone towards legalized abortion (whether Dem or GOP run states).
Americans overwhelmingly support abortion up to a reasonable cut-off date of 14 weeks (+/-). Every nation in the EU has a national policy with a cut-off date (even though the majority are Catholic-leaning nations).
If the GOP could get their act together and support a reasonable compromise conservatives could dominate both houses.
Republicans Have a Great Chance to Retake the Senate in 2024*
*But they did in 2022, too — abortion access, economy and Trump’s legal troubles are seen as unpredictable factors
The GOP has looked formidable coming into recent Senate-election years, only to fall short of expectations.
By Lindsay Wise, WSJ
Dec. 31, 2023
WASHINGTON—The GOP has an edge in the fight for control of the Senate headed into next year’s elections, as Democrats work to defend key seats in states that former Republican President Donald Trump won decisively in 2020.
But party strategists and political analysts see abortion, the economy, GOP candidate selection and Trump’s legal troubles as wild cards that could affect Republican chances and perhaps enable Democrats to hang onto their narrow Senate majority.
There are 34 Senate races in 2024. Democrats and Democratic-aligned independents occupy 23 of the seats, eight of which are rated competitive or vulnerable by Inside Elections, a nonpartisan publication that analyzes House and Senate races. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, all of them in states won by Trump in 2020. Of those, only the Texas seat held by Sen. Ted Cruz is rated competitive.
“The Senate majority is firmly in play, and Republicans have a great opportunity to win control of the Senate,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections. “But we’ve seen Republicans throw away opportunities before.”
It is a familiar tension. Republicans also entered 2022 in a strong position, only to suffer a net loss of one seat because of what Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) called poor “candidate quality.” He alluded to Republicans who triumphed in primaries but proved too extreme or unappealing to win in a general election, costing the party winnable races. Similar problems afflicted the GOP in 2010.
View up-to-date forecasts for the presidential, Senate and House races
Democrats’ hopes of keeping their 51-49 Senate majority took a hit last month when centrist Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin decided not to run for re-election in West Virginia, a state that Trump won by almost 39 percentage points in 2020. Trump has endorsed Republican Gov. Jim Justice in West Virginia’s Republican primary. Justice is dominating polling against Republican Rep. Alex Mooney. The winner of the GOP primary is expected to cruise to victory in the November general election.
With West Virginia seen as off the table, the battle for the Senate is centered on Montana, where Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is running for a fourth term, and Ohio, where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is defending the seat he has held since 2007. Trump won Montana by 16 percentage points and Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2020.
Those races might not even matter. If Republicans successfully defend all their current seats and win Manchin’s seat in West Virginia, as expected, and if the party’s nominee also wins the White House, Republicans will control the Senate in 2024, thanks to the new vice president’s tiebreaking vote, without picking up any other seats.
“That’s the ballgame. No other state needs to change hands,” Gonzales said. “But if Republicans are looking for a second seat, Ohio and Montana are the next places to go.”
Winning one of those contests likely would be enough to secure a Republican Senate majority, even if the GOP doesn’t take back the White House. Maine was the only state in 2020 to split its ticket in the presidential and Senate races: GOP Sen. Susan Collins won a fifth term by nearly 9 percentage points in a state Democratic President Biden took by about the same margin.
Republican candidates aiming to unseat Tester and Brown still must navigate competitive primaries over the coming months. In Montana, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has thrown its support behind military veteran and businessman Tim Sheehy. Another potential candidate is conservative Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018.
West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice is polling strongly in the state’s Senate Republican primary.
In Ohio, a heated three-way primary contest is brewing between business executive Bernie Moreno, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and state Sen. Matt Dolan. Trump recently threw his support behind Moreno.
Democrats expect the Republican nominees to emerge wounded from the intraparty clashes. They also say that because Montana and Ohio aren’t presidential battleground states, Tester and Brown should be able to run independently from Biden and win re-election.
“Our senators are running on their records and their vision for the future, and all of our incumbents have a proven track record of winning in the state, and of running above whatever Democratic baseline may be,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D., Mich.), who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
Brown said he wasn’t focused on polling that shows Biden with his lowest job approval ratings yet. A recent Wall Street Journal survey showed the president trailing Trump in a head-to-head contest nationwide, 47% to 43%. “I run my own races on my own terms,” Brown said.
Tester said he was skeptical of reading too much into any polls this many months from the election. “We’re a year out, so they’re especially skewed,” he said.
Whether Democratic Montana Sen. Jon Tester, seeking a fourth term, can prevail is critical
Strategists for both parties caution that plenty of time remains for the political landscape to shift, depending in part on the direction of the economy in the coming months. Two-thirds of voters currently rate the economy as poor or not good, and two-thirds say the economy has gotten worse in the past two years, during Biden’s time in office.
Courtroom drama surrounding Trump also could influence voters. Trump faces 91 charges in four criminal prosecutions, and recent Journal polling shows that a felony conviction for the former president would shift the head-to-head ballot to give Biden a 1-point lead, within the poll’s margin of error.
Republicans say it is too early to tell what will happen if Trump is convicted. For now, they’re counting on voters’ dim views of Biden to give Republican candidates a boost not only in Montana and Ohio, but also in presidential swing states Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, where Democrats are defending Senate seats.
Arizona, which voted to elect Biden in 2020 by less than 1 percentage point, could see a three-way matchup between independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and former local TV news anchor Kari Lake, a Republican who is still contesting the results of her 2022 loss for governor.
Democrats say they are focused on making an offensive play for Texas and Florida. In Texas, Democratic Rep. Colin Allred is the front-runner candidate against Republican incumbent Cruz. In Florida, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a former congresswoman from South Florida, is aiming to unseat Republican Sen. Rick Scott. The National Democratic Senatorial Committee already has started spending on staff and ads in both states.
Florida is one of several states where abortion could be on the ballot in November 2024, potentially helping Democrats mobilize women and younger voters who are upset after last year’s Supreme Court decision ended the constitutional right to the procedure.
Reproductive-rights groups in Senate battlegrounds Arizona, Montana and Nevada also are pushing constitutional amendments that would guarantee the right to abortion up to the point of fetal viability.
“What we know is that [abortion ballot measures] turn out people big time, particularly younger voters,” Peters said. “And younger voters are voting to protect fundamental rights and are voting Democratic when they get to the polls.”
For their part, Republicans, stung by losses in the 2022 midterm elections, have been working to craft a more effective message on abortion to combat Democrats’ efforts to cast their candidates as extreme on the issue.
“I think our candidates are going to be clear and that is, we do not support a total ban of all abortions,” said Sen. Steve Daines (R., Mont.), chair of Senate Republicans’ campaign committee. “We believe there should be exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother. And there should be reasonable limits placed on late-term abortions.”
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