Initially, RFK was siphoning votes away from Biden. Once Kamala entered the race, a significant share of those went back to the Dems.
Will RFK's endorsement help Trump in close battleground states? Probably? Maybe by 1% of the vote, which may turn out to be significant.
As Robert F. Kennedy Jr. exits, a look at who supported him in the 2024 presidential race
By Hannah Hartig, Pew Research
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced he would suspend his presidential campaign on Friday – adding yet another shakeup to the 2024 contest.
Though the third-party candidate was capturing about 15% of registered voters in early July, he lost significant ground after that. In early August, just 7% of voters said they leaned toward or preferred Kennedy for president. This data comes from Pew Research Center surveys conducted in July and August.
As RFK Jr. exits the race, here are some findings about his supporters:
What Kennedy voters did after Biden withdrew from race
Many of Kennedy’s July supporters decided to back a different candidate after Joe Biden left the race. These voters picked Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by two-to-one.
Among voters who said they backed Kennedy in July, a majority (61%) supported a different candidate in August. Roughly four-in-ten (39%) continued to back RFK Jr. Far more of those who changed their preference decided to support Harris (39%) than Trump (20%).
Kennedy’s voters were lukewarm in their support
In August, just 18% of Kennedy’s supporters said they backed him strongly. This compared with nearly two-thirds of Trump (64%) and Harris (62%) supporters.
Which voters were more likely to support RFK Jr.
A horizontal stacked bar chart showing that Kennedy’s supporters were relatively young, less attentive to politics, less motivated to vote.
Kennedy’s remaining supporters in August were far younger than Harris’ or Trump’s. About two-thirds of Kennedy’s supporters were under 50, compared with 46% of Harris’ and 38% of Trump’s.
While roughly half of Harris and Trump supporters follow what is going on in government and public affairs most of the time, only about a quarter (24%) of Kennedy supporters do.
Kennedy’s supporters also were far less likely to say they were highly motivated to vote in the presidential election. In August, the following shares of each candidate’s supporters said they were extremely motivated to vote:
Harris: 70%
Trump: 72%
Kennedy: 23%
Most Kennedy supporters did not identify as partisans – and a majority held unfavorable views of both Harris and Trump
Horizontal stacked bar charts showing that most of Kennedy’s supporters did not identify with a major party – and disliked both parties’ candidates.
Most of Kennedy’s remaining supporters did not call themselves partisans. Just 14% consider themselves Republicans while 12% consider themselves Democrats.
The vast majority of his supporters (74%) say they are independent or something else. A larger share lean toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party (40% vs. 26%).
In August, Kennedy supporters were sour on both Harris and Trump – 61% said they had an unfavorable view of both candidates.
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