A Fossil-Fuel Boom in the Americas

A Fossil-Fuel Boom in the Americas

The U.S. is leading a revival of exploration and drilling in the Western Hemisphere.

By Walter Russell Mead, WSJ

July 7, 2025 5:16 pm ET

Of all the goals President Trump has set in his norm-shattering second term, the goal of restoring what he calls America’s “energy dominance” may be the closest to realization. Global progress toward what the Biden administration hailed as the energy transition to a net-zero future has been largely derailed, and, as the Journal reported Monday, developments in the U.S.-dominated Western Hemisphere are increasingly shaping global energy markets.

The result won’t be exactly what Mr. Trump expected. More new oil and gas production is likely to come from Canada, Guyana, Argentina and Brazil than from the U.S. Nevertheless, the geopolitics of energy are shifting in Washington’s direction even as fossil fuels appear poised to play a larger role than green climate campaigners hoped.

From the Arctic Circle to Tierra del Fuego, politicians of all stripes have embraced the Trumpian rallying cry of “drill, baby, drill.” In Argentina, President Javier Milei’s pro-market government is accelerating the development of shale reserves that some compare favorably with America’s Permian Basin. Argentina has the potential to outproduce some members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and investments in the pipelines and processing facilities necessary to transform the country into a major exporter are proceeding rapidly.

In Guyana, offshore rigs are beginning to produce large quantities of oil, with exports up 54% in 2024 to almost 600,000 barrels a day, and are expected nearly to triple by 2030, when daily output capacity is expected to reach about 1.7 million barrels. The new oil wealth has made Guyana’s economy one of the fastest growing in the world.

Even the hemispheric left is embracing oil and gas. Brazil’s socialist President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva is doing everything he can to promote fossil-fuel growth in his country. State-owned oil company Petrobras is projected to increase production by a third, reaching a billion barrels a year by 2030. The goal is to make Brazil the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, and to do that the left-leaning government is willing to open areas near the mouth of the Amazon for drilling.

There is even a worthwhile Canadian initiative as virtuous Liberals hold their noses and embrace fossil-fuel production. Canada is already among the world’s top five producers of both oil and gas, but this isn’t enough for Prime Minister Mark Carney. Resistance from indigenous groups and environmentalist campaigners has derailed pipeline projects and oil-field developments. Canada is producing less oil and gas than it could and is more reliant on exporting fossil fuels to the U.S. than it wants to be in the Age of Trump.

The green lobby remains strong in Canada, and Mr. Carney wants to reduce emissions from Alberta’s oil sands via carbon capture. But Canada will likely be producing and exporting more oil and gas for more time than previously expected. Work on a pipeline capable of transporting a million barrels of oil a day to a remote port in northern British Columbia could be part of the plan.

All this is happening without Latin America’s traditional fossil-fuel behemoths. Oil and gas production in both Venezuela and Mexico is inhibited by nationalist shibboleths and corruption. If either country ever comes to its senses, hemispheric production would rise even further.

With or without Venezuela and Mexico, the Western Hemisphere is moving into a new era of fossil-fuel production. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and the U.S. are all raising their games, and newcomers like Suriname (where rich offshore oil discoveries have attracted investor interest) will further boost hemispheric production. This surge will reduce the power of the OPEC cartel and shield world energy markets from turmoil in the Middle East. It will also create headaches for Vladimir Putin, and strengthen the underpinnings of American security in an ever-changing world.

The hemispheric energy boom will also delay any global transition away from fossil fuels. Even as it presses forward with ambitious new drilling plans, Brazil is hosting this year’s United Nations environmental conference, COP30. Mr. da Silva’s hand-picked representative at the conference shocked climate change campaigners recently when he argued that Brazil’s drill-baby-drill policies can be part of the energy transition.

For now prices, not politics, will limit hemispheric production. It costs less to pump oil out of the ground in Saudi Arabia than to frack for it in Patagonia. Price wars may slow the new production, but they won’t stop it. Energy abundance is headed our way.

Mr. Trump wanted to derail the push against fossil fuels and enhance America’s influence in world energy markets. With unexpected support from Canada, Argentina, Guyana and Brazil, his chances of success look good.