Do the Dems have the midterms sewn up?

In 1992 James Carville, Clinton's campaign director, coined the term "it's the economy stupid". People are rightfully horrified at Voldemort's handling of ICE in northern cities. Come November, that will be forgotten along* with his DOGE misadventures.

Voters are famously self absorbed. If the economy is cranking by then, they may well keep both houses in GOP control. Additionally, except for isolated cohorts, the fact that our border is now secure will stick as a voting issue.

*Assuming Tom Homan follows through and stops harassing gainfully employed law abiding illegals. If he doesn't ICE's mistep will tank the GOP.

Midterms Are Dems’ to Lose—and They May

Bashing Trump and pandering to the kooky left is hardly a winning formula.

By Karl Rove, WSJ

Jan. 28, 2026 5:08 pm ET

The U.S. Capitol in Washington at sunset, Jan. 12. Julia Demaree Nikhinson/Associated Press

In midterm elections, the party that doesn’t hold the White House almost always makes gains. That’s especially true when the president’s approval rating is underwater, which means Republicans should be worried. Donald Trump’s approval is 42.7% in the RealClearPolitics average. Consumer confidence is dropping. And the terrible mistakes in Minneapolis have hurt him and his party.

Yet all this doesn’t guarantee a smashing victory for Democrats in November. There’s time—more than nine months—for Republican fortunes to improve. More important, Democrats have their own problems.

Many of them think that attacking Mr. Trump for every action and word is sufficient. It isn’t. The attacks must be linked to a Democratic agenda that addresses issues Americans believe affect their lives. Blindly bashing Mr. Trump every day lets the president choose the terrain. Democrats must have a plan that allows them to attack him deliberately on turf more favorable to them.

It doesn’t help that so many Democrats are screaming for Mr. Trump’s impeachment. Republicans overreached in impeaching Bill Clinton in 1998, and Democrats didn’t do themselves any good when they impeached Mr. Trump twice in his first term. Swing voters know two-thirds of the Senate won’t vote for impeachment today. So they see calls for removing Mr. Trump as more partisan politics.

Time spent demanding impeachment is time lost discussing what will move swing voters. Independents want to know how Democrats would improve the economy and why their paychecks haven’t caught up with prices. They’re uneasy about artificial intelligence, tariffs and trade disputes. They see the world as dangerous and unstable. And they’re suspicious because they attribute much of America’s economic mess to Joe Biden. Absent a Democratic agenda, many of them won’t be convinced that Democrats would be better at governing.

To maximize their victories, the Democrats’ agenda must move closer to the center and away from the fever swamps of the far left. The victory of Zohran Mamdani as New York mayor has grabbed the attention of party activists. It will encourage copycat primary candidates. He and his socialist experiments will draw national attention this year. That won’t be helpful in November. His vision is unpopular outside a few deep blue enclaves.

Truth be told, it isn’t all that popular even in New York City. Of voters there, 65% are registered Democrats and 11% are Republicans. Mr. Mamdani won only 50.8% of the vote.

The more left-wing candidates triumph in primaries, the more Democrats everywhere will have to explain where they stand on the left’s more controversial ideas. The outcome of the battle inside the Democratic Party is crucial. Playing defense doesn’t win elections.

Neither does demanding the abolition of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. That cry could become as damaging to Democrats as “defund the police.” It reinforces that Democrats support open borders and protecting violent criminal illegal aliens. Better to condemn individual ICE actions and call for dramatic reforms than to appear soft again on crime and illegal immigration.

Democrats have also made a huge mistake defending men’s participating in women’s sports and availing themselves of the ladies’ restroom. Many up-for-grabs voters are unsettled when Democrats can’t define the word “woman” or acknowledge that men can’t give birth. These Democrats look like kooks.

Another worrying sign for Democrats: Voters trust congressional Republicans more than congressional Democrats on critical issues. A Journal poll this month found that voters think Republican lawmakers are “best able to handle” the economy by 38% to 32% for Democrats. On inflation, same numbers. On immigration, it’s 44% Republicans, 33% Democrats. On foreign policy, 38% Republicans, 33% Democrats.

Finally, Democrats face a structural problem. They have fewer easy targets this year. Presidents typically carry in on their coattails a bunch of their party’s candidates in marginal seats. Not so Mr. Trump. Republicans lost two House seats in 2024.

Democrats must do what they’ve never done during the Trump era: emphasize a governing agenda rather than fierce denunciations of the president. Talk less about him and more about the needs of ordinary Americans. Stay away from the far left. Show common sense. It shouldn’t be hard to do, but it is. That’s why Democrats are still in a jam.

Mr. Rove was senior adviser and deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush and is author of “The Triumph of William McKinley” (Simon & Schuster, 2015).