Iran Isn’t Winning This War

Words of wisdom!

Iran Isn’t Winning This War

But it might if the U.S. stops the bombing due to higher oil prices.

By The Editorial Board, WSJ

March 9, 2026

Is it time for President Trump to call off the bombing and declare victory in Iran? You’d think so judging by the panic in Washington as the price of oil spikes. That certainly is the fondest wish of the ayatollahs, who know they’re losing.

The reality inside Iran and the region is that the U.S. and Israel continue to make progress. The regime loses more of its military each day, along with the ability to hurt its neighbors. The Israelis estimate 70% to 75% of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, and the U.S. has destroyed at least 43 Iranian ships.

On Monday the United Arab Emirates received only 18 drones, down from 126 a day over the past week. We’ll soon see if that was a blip or a meaningful decline. Central Command’s Adm. Brad Cooper said last week that Iran’s missile and drone volumes were down 90% and 83%, respectively. Attacks on Iran’s internal security institutions are intensifying.

At 10 days in, the war can hardly be considered prolonged, and there’s nothing gradual about U.S. or Israeli strategy. Instead there is a race: Can Iran do enough damage to global energy markets with its remaining missiles and drones before it loses them or must come to terms?

The regime for now thinks it can outlast the U.S. On Sunday it chose Mojtaba Khamenei as its new Supreme Leader, succeeding his father. The younger Mr. Khamenei sends a message of no compromise—to Iran’s own citizens or Mr. Trump. He is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is the dominant power inside the country. With even weaker religious credentials than his father, Mr. Khamenei owes his accession to the hereditary principle despised by the 1979 revolution.

We’re also learning that Russia is aiding Iran’s regime in return for its drone production for the war in Ukraine. News reports say Russian intelligence is helping Iran target U.S. forces and radars, with one possible hit at a base in Jordan. The reinforces the point that the U.S. is fighting a larger axis. Iran also sought Chinese antiship missiles to sink U.S. carriers. Mr. Trump should tell the public how the wars in Ukraine and Iran are linked.

As for the spike in oil prices, the traffic stoppage in the Strait of Hormuz isn’t unexpected; it’s one reason past Presidents were deterred from confronting Iran’s nuclear program. The oil spike—to above $115 before falling back down below $90 on Monday—will hurt consumers in the West. But blocking the Strait of Hormuz is also costly for Iran, which relies on oil exports for its financing.

The U.S. in particular has ample oil and gas supplies. Mr. Trump is also right that the disruption is likely to stop when the war does and it is a “small price to pay” for major security advances. We’ve weathered worse. Adjusted for inflation at $100 a barrel today, Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine sent the price of oil to $143, and in 2008 it hit $217. G-7 nations have declined for now to release oil reserves, but that can change if needed.

The clamoring for Mr. Trump to end the war will likely increase, including from Republicans who fear gasoline prices going into November’s midterms. How long to keep going is a judgment call, but both U.S. and Israeli officials speak about weeks rather than months. Mr. Trump said Monday that the U.S. has “already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough.”

Both allies agree on the need to end the threat from Iran’s regime, which can be done by removing it or, second-best, its capabilities. That’s where differences may emerge, but for now the regime still has capabilities to destroy. There’s no daylight on that.

It would make no sense to leave so many loose ends, from missiles and production facilities to nuclear sites at Pickaxe Mountain and the Isfahan tunnels. There’s also little reason to leave standing any IRGC or basij bases. Even if the regime survives the bombing, it’s in the U.S. security interest to give Iranians the best chance to retake their country.

Mr. Trump doesn’t need the regime to fall to call Operation Epic Fury a success. But stopping now amid some short-term economic discomfort would be a victory for the mullahs. They can’t be allowed to conclude that shutting down oil flows is their passport to survival now and in the future.