Is Papa Bear right about San Fran?

Basically yes! I did a quick Claude comparison between San Frans and NYC (which is also rather f-cked up). NYC has far less property crime and shelter's its homeless. Chicago? We have even higher violent crime rates than either City. BAM!

Crime: San Francisco vs. New York City

The bottom line: SF has significantly higher crime rates per capita than NYC.

Violent Crime On a per-capita basis, SF has a higher violent crime rate than NYC in several recent years, largely due to higher rates of robbery and aggravated assault in certain districts. NYC's violent crime rate is generally below or comparable to the national rate for large cities. Quora

Sorting by total violent crime rate, SF ranks 37th among the 100 largest U.S. cities at 715 incidents per 100,000 residents, while NYC ranks 59th at 539 per 100,000. Hacker News

Property Crime — SF's Most Glaring Problem Using FBI data, bestplaces.net assigned SF a violent crime index of 39.6 versus NYC's 28.2. The property crime disparity is even starker: SF scores 79.2 versus NYC's 24.9 — which actually falls below the national average. Fortune SF's smash-and-grab car break-ins, retail theft, and larceny have become notorious citywide.

Recent NYC Trends NYC's homicide rate in the first half of 2025 was 16% lower than the same period in 2024, and ranked among the lowest of the 43 large cities studied — lower than all but three cities. Robbery and larceny did rise by 17% and 13%, respectively. Council on Criminal Justice

Transit Safety NYC subway crime rates per ride are low compared to past decades; improvements were reported from 2022–2024. SF's Muni and BART have had high-profile incidents and perception-of-safety problems, with higher per-rider incident rates than NYC transit in certain periods. Quora

Homelessness: The Even Bigger Divide

The bottom line: Both cities have large homeless populations, but SF's crisis is far more visible on the street.

Scale In the January 2024 point-in-time count, SF had 8,323 homeless people — and 4,355 of them were unsheltered, sleeping on streets or in vehicles. Inside Guide to San Francisco Tourism NYC's total homeless population is far larger in raw numbers (~80,000+), but it's mostly hidden in shelters.

The Critical Difference: Sheltering About 95% of NYC's homeless are in shelters, versus only 48% for San Francisco. Nationally, the sheltered rate is 61%. Inside Guide to San Francisco Tourism

NYC guarantees a shelter bed to anyone who needs one through a "right to shelter" law. SF has no such law. As a result, only 36% of SF's homeless population has access to shelter beds, while NYC shelters over 90% of its homeless population. Ryan J. Hite

Per-Capita Street Homelessness NYC's unsheltered homeless rate is approximately 45 per 100,000 residents. San Francisco's rate is 492 per 100,000 — nearly 11 times as high. Medium This is why SF feels so much worse to anyone walking around, even though NYC has more homeless people overall.

Spending vs. Results SF spends $672 million a year on homelessness, but much of the budget goes toward permanent supportive housing rather than emergency shelter beds — limiting short-term impact on street visibility. Ryan J. Hite

Why the Difference? SF's mild climate makes outdoor living more survivable year-round, which partly explains its lower shelter capacity compared to cold-weather cities like NYC. Ryan J. Hite Political governance also plays a role — NYC's mayor has far more centralized control over city government than SF's mayor, who must contend with a Board of Supervisors that can thwart initiatives. San Francisco Examiner

Summary Table

Metric	San Francisco	New York City
Population	~815,000	~8.5 million
Violent crime rate (per 100k)	~715	~539
Property crime index	79.2	24.9
Total homeless	~8,300	~80,000+
% sheltered	~48–52%	~95%
Unsheltered rate (per 100k)	~492	~45

The core takeaway: NYC is substantially safer by crime metrics and radically better at keeping homelessness off the streets, primarily through its legal right-to-shelter mandate and a much larger shelter infrastructure. SF's problems are more visible and concentrated despite serving a population 10x smaller.