Is Voldemort correct about Fentanyl?

First off, Fentanyl is the leading cause of overdose deaths in the US.

Last year, about 80,000 Americans died from drug overdoses (a 27% decrease from the year before). Of these, about 55,000 were from opioids (75%+ from Fentanyl). For context, about 50,000 people died from suicide and 20,000 from homicide.

Trump claims that much of the drug traffic comes from Venezuela (ergo our recent attacks on illegal vessels). Err...most of the stuff is actually coming from Mexico (after using materials shipped from China).

Current situation (since ~2019):

Since approximately 2019, Mexico has reportedly replaced China as the main source of U.S.-bound illicit fentanyl.

However, China provides the precursors:

Since May 2019, when China scheduled all fentanyl variants as controlled substances, the supply of fentanyl from China directly to the United States has decreased substantially. However, fentanyl precursors continue to be produced in China, then shipped to Mexico and countries in Central America

China remains the primary source of fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances trafficked through international mail and express consignment operations, as well as the main source for all fentanyl-related substances trafficked into the United States

Fentanyl Flow to the United States

The supply chain:

Chinese brokers knowingly sell precursor chemicals to Mexican criminal groups for the production of fentanyl. From the precursors, the Sinaloa Cartel and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) synthesize fentanyl in Mexico and then smuggle it to the United States

China, Mexico, and America's fight against the fentanyl epidemic | Brookings

Domestic production:

There's limited evidence of significant domestic U.S. fentanyl production in the search results. The focus is on Mexican production from Chinese precursors.

Bottom line: Rather than distinct percentages, it's an integrated supply chain: China supplies ~80% or more of the precursor chemicals → Mexican cartels manufacture the fentanyl → Mexico is the source of virtually all finished fentanyl entering the U.S. Very little finished fentanyl comes directly from China anymore since 2019, and minimal evidence suggests significant U.S. domestic production.

Source: Claude AI