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The next conflict

Is the United States about to wage war on Iran?

By Sam Sifton, NY Times

Feb 23, 2026

American forces have taken positions across the Middle East, with two aircraft carrier groups and dozens of fighter jets, bombers and other planes poised within striking distance of the country. President Trump said Friday he might use them in a limited strike to pressure Iran to end its nuclear program.

Trump badly wants that deal, which his predecessors chased — and never realized. He blew up nuclear enrichment sites in Iran last year. In talks last week, he pushed Iran for an agreement, but so far it has not assented. “Bad things will happen” if Tehran doesn’t sign a deal, Trump said last week. “You’re going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days.”

Now he has arrayed a force in the region to support a major conflict — one that could potentially last longer, and be deadlier, than last year’s 12-day war on Iran or the commando attack that removed Venezuela’s president in January. Trump has told advisers that if an initial strike fails to move Iran to end its nuclear program, he may mount a bigger attack to drive its leaders from power.

Note: Some U.S. ship locations are approximate. Source: New York Times reporting and analysis of satellite imagery, ship- and flight-tracking data. The New York Times

For its part, Iran says that if the nation is attacked, “all bases, facilities and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets,” and that the “United States would bear full and direct responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences.” This story describes some of Iran’s possible targets.

What justification does the White House give for a possible attack? Trump aides have mentioned a desire to protect protesters there, after the government killed thousands of them last month, and a wish to knock over the regime by removing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

That would certainly bolster what still seems to be the main motivation: atomic weapons. Last year, Trump said his attacks had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Intelligence reports, however, cast the strikes more as setbacks. There have been signs recently that Iran is hardening its bunkers and getting ready to enrich more uranium.

Despite these drumbeats of war, Trump hasn’t sought approval from Congress, nor has he directly addressed the American people. Tomorrow is the annual State of the Union address, and perhaps we’ll learn more when he delivers it.

How Iran feels

Women wearing chadors stand in front of launch vehicles for ballistic missiles.

In Tehran this month. Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

In the meantime, though, I wondered how Iranians are feeling about all of this. So I reached out to Erika Solomon, The Times’s bureau chief for Iran and Iraq, to ask. Erika told me there’s a sense of overwhelming grief in the country right now and a belief that the die has already been cast. An attack, many Iranians feel, is a near certainty. As she put it:

There are three major themes to the mood right now in Iran:

Mourning and division. Many Iranians are still wrestling with the shock and pain of seeing thousands killed in the crackdown on nationwide protests early this year. They are weary. The opposition is also fractured about what the future should look like. Others still support the government to varying degrees — or are simply wary of the alternatives. Many Iranians we speak to say they’ve never seen Iran as polarized as it is now. As the country shot off fireworks to celebrate the anniversary of the revolution earlier this month, we saw videos and recordings where government supporters chanted “God is great” while other people on nearby rooftops yelled “Death to Khamenei,” the supreme leader.

Defiance and exasperation. This has surprised even some Iran experts: Many people keep voicing their anger despite a fearsome and ongoing crackdown. Even though dissidents are still going to jail — and losing their businesses and property — we see people signing letters of protest, organizing sit-ins, refusing to take university exams and more. University students opened the new semester this weekend with demonstrations. The economic crisis that first drove people to the streets in December has not ended. It’s only getting worse. We talk to middle-class families who have long since stopped buying meat for their meals. Now they’re choosing between paying rent or buying food. Iranians are bracing for the possibility of U.S. strikes at a moment when they are emotionally and materially devastated.

Anticipation and fatalism. The biggest question looming over every Iranian right now is: Will America strike? Many Iranians we speak to are extremely worried for their safety and don’t think American bombs can solve their problems. And yet a few tell us they welcome a strike because they’ve lost hope that there is any other way to get rid of the government and are willing to take a chance on foreign intervention — despite having seen how it went for their neighbors in Iraq and Afghanistan. No matter how they feel, there is a growing sense that strikes are inevitable, and the only option for them now is to prepare.

Those who can afford it are stocking up on canned goods and batteries. One blogger posted tips for how to organize two weeks’ worth of supplies. In the replies, Iranians asked how they were supposed to gather food for an extended war when they couldn’t feed themselves today.