Is Voldemort nuts to tarriff Canada?

The media coverage of this has been pretty worthless. So it's time for Snitz to mansplain this. Strap in.

The key questions:

• Was Canada "f-cking us"?

• If "yes", how badly were they "fucking" us?

• Is our relatiatory response a smart tactic or overkill? By itself or in the context of our other geopolitcal moves?

I've used both Claude and Gemini to generate some research here.

I: Canada was shoving it up our tuchus?

Yes. There are some longstanding, substantive complaints that predate the current dispute and aren't just pretext:

• Dairy supply management: Canada maintains high out-of-quota tariffs (often 200%+) on dairy imports once a tariff-rate quota is filled. US dairy producers have argued for years — across multiple administrations, not just this one — that Canada doesn't fully honor the market-access commitments it made under CUSMA/USMCA. A USMCA dispute panel actually sided partly with US dairy complaints in 2022.

• Alcohol retail practices: Provincial liquor boards (LCBO, SAQ, etc.) function as government retail monopolies and have at times restricted shelf space or listing for US products, which US officials frame as a non-tariff barrier. The administration described some of its recent restrictions as a response to boycotts of American alcohol brands in Canadian government-run liquor stores. IASPOINT

• Autos and content rules: Disputes over rules-of-origin compliance and EV/auto sector policy have also been points of friction.

II: How badly were we getting "violated"?

Dairy — the most-cited grievance. In original USMCA talks the US asked for 10% market access and got 3.25%; the two sides have since fought over whether Canada even delivers that. In dollar terms this is tiny: US dairy exports to Canada hit a record $1.3 billion in 2025. That's not a rounding error exactly, but against $880B in total trade it's about 0.15%.

• Alcohol — US spirit exports to Canada averaged roughly $160–250 million a year pre-dispute (Canada was the #2 market for US spirits, about 11% of total US spirit exports). Real money for that industry specifically, negligible at the national trade-balance level.

• Autos — the biggest of the three by dollar value: Canadian imports of US vehicles fell about $5.6 billion (~22%) between April 2025 and March 2026, which the administration points to as evidence of discrimination.

• Agriculture broadly is the largest overall trade category ($28–30B US exports to Canada, $39–40B the other way), but dairy and alcohol specifically are a sliver of that.

Add it up generously — dairy, alcohol, autos — and you're looking at roughly $7–10 billion a year of contested trade, against an $880 billion relationship. Call it 1%, maybe a bit more.

The size of the fallout

This is where the asymmetry shows up. Each round of retaliation has been tens of billions of dollars, covering broad swaths of unrelated trade, not just the disputed sectors:

• Canada's initial retaliation: ~$22B (C$30B) of US goods

• A second round: another ~$22B (C$29.8B)

• The current round (Sept 2026): ~$20B (C$27.6B), plus a near-total collapse of US spirits sales in Canadian government liquor stores, which by some tracking has cut US spirit exports to Canada by over 80% in volume — far beyond what a 25% tariff alone would produce

• Broader damage: talks have collapsed entirely, the CUSMA renewal (up for review this year) is now genuinely at risk rather than a formality, and Canada's PM has said publicly Canada needs to reduce its economic dependence on the US — a structural, not cyclical, response

• On the US side, the administration itself walked back tariffs on coffee, beef, and other staples after consumer price effects became politically uncomfortable, which is a tacit admission the costs were spilling well past the target sectors

My take: Voldemort has used the hammer more than one to force nations into submission, avoiding the normal diplomatic or legal channels (for expediency). For example, getting NATO to step up and pay for the Ukraine War & building up their defense arsenal. Another example being the threat against Mexico. Ergo, let illegals cross into Mexico and onto the US will lead to trade sanctions.

Using this playbook against Canada given the current "dust up" with Iran is probably a bit much. A lot of escalation without a sufficient level of benefit. Ergo, there's nothing wrong with fighting with others or being a bully (where appropriate) so long as your strategic about it. This wasn't the right place or time to go nuclear on Canada.