Is Voldemort's tariff war actually hurting China?

Yes. Will he eventually (ergo next 3-6 months) blink and come to the bargaining table? More likely than not.

As for the carnage at home? The S&P500 is down about 5% for the year. Tariffs may be the culprit, but on the other hand, the index PE was pretty overcooked and ready for a little correction.

Apparently the inflation rate hasn't heard all the dire news about tariffs raising the price of everything? The currently inflation rate of 2.39% is actually down considerably from last year.

Not endorsing the Dark Lord's actions, but the world isn't ending yet?

China’s Export Orders Plunge, Hit by Trump’s Trade War

Steep U.S. tariffs are starting to squeeze Chinese economy

By Jason Douglas, WSJ

Updated April 30, 2025 4:07 am ET

• China’s manufacturing activity weakens amid rising U.S. tariffs, hitting export orders hard in April.

• China’s PMI fell to 49, signaling contraction, while new export orders hit their lowest since December 2022.

• Beijing faces pressure to boost stimulus and negotiate with the U.S., but remains defiant despite economic strain.

China’s economy showed its first big signs of damage from the trade war, as steep U.S. tariffs pummeled export orders and production at the country’s factories.

A gauge of new export orders fell in April to its lowest reading since Covid-19 was ravaging the country in 2022, while overall manufacturing activity in China was the weakest in more than a year, according to surveys published Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

The sharp pullback shows President Trump’s eye-watering tariffs on Chinese imports are starting to squeeze the engine room of China’s economy, piling pressure on Beijing to boost its stimulus efforts to shore up growth.

It also adds to pressure on leader Xi Jinping to reach a deal on trade with Trump—though for now the clear message from Beijing is one of resolute defiance in the teeth of what it describes as U.S. bullying.

China’s official purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector, a closely-watched gauge of activity at China’s factories, came in at 49 in April, down sharply from the 50.5 reading recorded in March. A reading of 50 or above indicates factory activity is expanding, while below 50 points to a contraction. April’s reading was the weakest since December 2023.

A similar measure of new export orders plunged even more steeply, sinking to 44.7 in April, the lowest reading since December 2022, an early sign that trade between the U.S. and China is in danger of drying up as American importers cancel or delay orders after a rush to bring in goods earlier this year before tariffs came into effect.

Trump in his second term has hit Chinese imports with tariffs of 145% as part of a much broader assault aimed at rewiring U.S. trade with the world.

Trump accuses American trading partners of blocking U.S. exports and treating the U.S. unfairly. In early April, he unveiled planned tariff increases on allies and adversaries alike, later pausing their implementation for 90 days to give countries a shot at negotiating more favorable trade terms.

He has levied tariffs on steel, aluminum and cars, and has promised to do the same on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. His overarching goals are to shrink the U.S.’s yawning trade deficit and prod companies to bring jobs and manufacturing back to America, though many economists are skeptical tariffs are the right tool to accomplish either.

Chinese imports were singled out for especially high tariffs, reflecting U.S. discomfort over Beijing’s industrial clout and growing geopolitical heft. China was exempted from the 90-day tariff pause, and Washington has signaled that it wants other countries to limit trade with China as part of any deal over access to the U.S. market.

China has responded by raising tariffs of its own on U.S. imports to more than 100%, targeting U.S. companies operating in China, and restricting the export of critical minerals used in batteries and other high-tech applications.

Xi has signaled that Beijing is prepared for a long battle over trade. In a social-media post earlier this week, the Chinese government urged other countries not to submit to U.S. pressure and said China will “never kneel down” before Washington.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declined to say whether the U.S. and China are in direct communication and whether President Trump has been in touch with President Xi. Photo: Yuri Gripas/abaca/Shutterstock

Still, Wednesday’s data shows that unyielding strategy will have short-term costs for China’s economy, which last year relied on exports for about a third of its growth. Goldman Sachs estimates that between 10 million and 20 million manufacturing jobs in China depend on U.S. purchases.

Beijing has pledged to boost government borrowing and spending and lift consumption to offset the drag on its economy from a plunge in trade. Even so, economists have slashed their forecasts for Chinese growth this year.

Capital Economics said Tuesday that the economy was likely weaker in the first quarter than official growth figures suggested, and said it expects the economy to expand just 3.5% in 2025, well short of Beijing’s target of around 5%.

The consulting firm said the survey data might overstate the scale of the pullback in manufacturing, since they reflect respondents’ sentiments over trade and not just real activity, but nonetheless they “still suggest that China’s economy is coming under pressure.” Excluding the disruptions around Covid-19, Capital Economics said, April’s new export orders reading was the worst since 2012.

The International Monetary Fund last week warned global growth would suffer as the trade war rocks commerce and investment. In Asia, April figures from South Korea and Japan suggest exports from those countries are weakening, while shipping data suggests cargo shipments between the U.S. and China are collapsing.

It isn’t clear if the U.S. and China can reach a deal on trade to ease tensions and revive cross-border commerce, albeit likely at a reduced level.

The White House is open to lowering tariffs on Chinese imports to de-escalate the trade war, The Wall Street Journal has reported. Washington has exempted smartphones and other consumer electronics from tariffs, while Beijing has waived duties on U.S.-made semiconductor equipment and aviation parts. Yet substantive talks on trade between Washington and Beijing don’t appear to be happening.