This is pretty hard to predict. If I had to guess on a likely scenario? The Dems will not vote for Jordon and will force the GOP to come up with the necessary votes. That may take multiple rounds, but I don't see anyone emerging to beat him. Trump is watching in the wings and will punish anyone who doesn't support his guy.
If you're a Republican are you going to risk enraging the likely next President? Not worth it to you. Sad but true.
BTW, the odds that one of Trump's four indictments render him unable to hold office is less than Biden's deteriorating mental condition sidelining him as a probable winner. Will Kennedy as a third-party candidate change this dynamic? Not likely.
Jim Jordan Wins GOP Nod for Speaker, but Hurdles Remain
Trump ally must get a majority of the full House to claim the gavel
By Siobhan Hughes, Katy Stech Ferek, Lindsay Wise and David Harrison
Updated Oct. 13, 2023 5:08 pm ET
WASHINGTON—House Republicans chose Rep. Jim Jordan (R., Ohio) as their nominee for speaker, but it remained uncertain whether the fiery ally of former President Donald Trump could avoid the fate of Steve Scalise (R., La.), who also won an internal ballot but then failed to win enough broad party support to claim the gavel.
The speaker post has been vacant—and the House paralyzed—since a small group of party rebels last week engineered the historic ouster of Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.). The GOP turmoil comes as Congress faces a mid-November deadline to fund the government. The fighting in Israel and Gaza has also added more urgency to restoring House operations, and GOP lawmakers have voiced increased exasperation with the state of affairs.
In a 124-81 vote Friday, Republicans picked Jordan, who chairs the Judiciary Committee, over Rep. Austin Scott (R., Ga,), a low-profile Republican who made a last-minute decision to run as the candidate for Jordan critics. Many Republicans are still smarting over the failed bid by Scalise, who won the party nomination but was forced to abandon his bid Thursday after several dozen colleagues declined to rally to his side.
In Friday’s tally, Jordan didn’t receive the 217 votes needed to assure Republicans of winning a majority of votes on the House floor. While that was impossible with only about 209 Republicans present, the results also pointed to the party’s broader problem: In the narrowly divided 221-212 House, Republicans can lose no more than four votes if all lawmakers show up and vote for an individual to serve as House speaker.
After the nomination vote, Jordan then called for a second secret ballot to directly test GOP support for his run on the House floor. In that vote, he got the support of 152 colleagues, with 55 against, more than enough opposition to block him from becoming speaker.
House Republicans’ next steps remained unclear, but several different avenues came into greater focus. On one track, Jordan faces the decision of whether to seek a roll-call vote on the House floor, putting the party through a wrenching public fight reminiscent of the 15 ballots it took McCarthy to ascend to the speakership in January. That decision, according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R., S.D.), is made in consultation with the acting speaker pro tempore, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R., N.C.), who has been serving as a caretaker since McCarthy’s ouster
In a Chaotic House, the Next Speaker Must Unite These Three Factions
Jordan could also decide to postpone a floor vote until he has won over his critics, a strategy that Scalise tried but failed.
Waiting in the wings in the event that Jordan can’t reach a majority of the House’s 433 members are other Republican candidates. Speculation centered on people including Rep. Kevin Hern (Okla.), the chair of the conservative Republican Study Committee, and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (Minn.) along with Rep. Mike Johnson (R., La.), the vice chairman of the House Republican conference.
Some influential Republicans, however, were talking about another option: empowering McHenry for a finite period of time so he could advance must-pass legislation. Democrats likely would need to join with Republicans to give McHenry such powers, because the House’s own rules are seen as confining him only to those duties necessary to elect a new speaker.
“Patrick should have that power right now and do the work we have to do and at the same time have the elections,” McCarthy told reporters on Friday. McHenry assumed a role as caretaker speaker 10 days ago, when McCarthy was deposed and the House turned to a list prepared by McCarthy as part of post- Sept. 11 protocols. McHenry’s name was first on the list.
On Friday, Democratic leaders from the Problem Solvers Caucus sent a letter to McHenry proposing that his powers be expanded to allow him to bring a narrow set of legislation up for a vote, with his authority limited to 15-day increments. The bills would cover foreign aid to Ukraine and Israel, extending through Jan. 11 a continuing resolution that is funding the government, and committee and floor consideration of the eight fiscal 2024 appropriations bills that haven’t yet cleared the House.
Scalise exited the speaker contest Thursday, one day after in an internal GOP ballot he narrowly won the nomination, 113-99, over Jordan, a margin that did little to persuade many Jordan supporters to endorse Scalise. Following a day of lobbying that showed little signs of progress, Scalise bowed out.
Jordan’s allies argued that Jordan’s strong showing in the secret ballot against Scalise left him as the best remaining candidate to unify the party.
But many moderate Republicans object to Jordan, a co-founder of the hard-line House Freedom Caucus, and his backers, whom they see as benefiting from guerrilla tactics to mount a takeover of Republican leadership. It was a strategy made possible by House Republicans’ narrow majority and the unwillingness of Democrats to vote for a Republican speaker.
Democrats have said that they wouldn’t step in to bail out Republicans and that the party had to find a speaker on its own. Still, the potential rise of Jordan, who was in close contact with Trump during his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, could put pressure on some Democrats to step in for another candidate.
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