Josh Shapiro Shows Democrats How to Win

Josh against Marco would be a excellent horse race. One I'd like to see!

Josh Shapiro Shows Democrats How to Win

He’s far ahead in the most important swing state. As 2028 nears, pay attention.

By William A. Galston, WSJ

Sept. 1, 2026

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro in Harrisburg, Pa., Aug. 18. Marc Levy/Associated Press

As Democrats continue to reckon with their shattering defeat in 2024, Donald Trump’s unpopularity is leading many voters to give them a new look. The president’s failure to bring prices down has wiped out the advantage his party enjoyed on managing the economy, and the conflict with Iran is counterbalancing memories of Joe Biden’s poorly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan.

Not surprisingly, Democrats are arguing about how best to take advantage of the opportunity Mr. Trump has handed them. This debate pivots on two classic theories—mobilization and persuasion—that aren’t flatly incompatible but point in different directions. Mobilizers focus on activating previously uninvolved portions of the electorate and bringing them to the polls; persuaders on changing the minds of regular voters.

Mobilization typically requires intensifying conflict by mounting sharp attacks on the opposition and offering new proposals that challenge the status quo. Persuasion requires building on common ground with those who have opposed your party in the past.

New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s election brought throngs of new young voters into the electorate, a major victory for the mobilizers. Likewise Abdul El-Sayed’s successful campaign against the moderate Democrat Rep. Haley Stevens for Michigan’s U.S. Senate nomination. A general-election victory for Mr. El-Sayed in an important swing state would put wind in the sails of the mobilizers as Democrats turn toward 2028.

The persuaders’ flag is being carried by Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, the largest and most important swing state. Except for George W. Bush, every winning presidential candidate since 1972 has carried the Keystone State, and in the past 10 presidential elections the winning candidate’s share of the state’s vote has deviated from his national share by an average of only 1.6 points. With its mix of bright blue big cities, purple suburbs and dark red rural towns, Pennsylvania has become a microcosm of the country.

Mr. Shapiro’s standing in his race for re-election is remarkable. According to polls conducted in the past two months, he leads his Republican challenger by more than 20 points. His job approval stands at 60%, including 56% of white voters without college degrees. Along with near-unanimous support from Democrats and from 58% of independents, 31% percent of Republicans approve of his performance in office, as do 30% of Trump supporters. Seventeen percent of Republicans say that they will vote for him.

In our polarized times, these results are unusual. But they are explicable. Fifty percent of Pennsylvania’s electorate sees the Democratic Party as having moved too far left, compared with only 33% who think that the party hasn’t moved too far in either direction. For Mr. Shapiro, it’s the reverse: Just 29% see him as having moved too far left, while twice as many—58%—see him as neither too far left nor too far right. Only 11% of Republicans think that the Democratic Party has found this sweet spot on the ideological spectrum, but 37% think Mr. Shapiro has. This is a good operational definition of moderation, and he is reaping its rewards.

What about Israel? Mr. Shapiro is Jewish and a strong supporter of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish and democratic state. At the same time, he favors a two-state solution, has been critical of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies, and has spoken in general terms of using U.S. arms sales to Israel as leverage to change some of the Netanyahu government’s policies.

Here again, Mr. Shapiro seems to have found the point of equipoise. Sixteen percent of Democrats believe that he has been too supportive of Israel and 3% that he has been insufficiently supportive. But 59% think that his level of support is about right, as do 47% of Pennsylvania’s electorate, with the remainder evenly divided between the “too much” and “not enough” camps.

Serious observers give Mr. Shapiro’s opponent, state Treasurer Stacy Garrity, scant chance of winning. Republicans may decide to invest in the race anyway in an effort to deprive him of a landslide. Mr. Shapiro has been campaigning as a party builder, appearing with Democrats in swing congressional and state legislative districts, and Republican cash could complicate this effort as well.

But if Mr. Shapiro wins the smashing victory that current polls project, backed by a unified Democratic Party, a majority of independents and a substantial crossover vote from Republicans, his strategy of persuasion through moderation will be vindicated in a state that serves as a dry run for the 2028 election.