Inflation is steady. Grocery prices are not

My advice to all Americans. I: Higher grocery prices is a signal that you should probably be eating less, saving money and II: You should throttle back the complaining.

Inflation is steady. Grocery prices are not

A new inflation report is reassuring on some fronts. But it also points to why so many consumers still experience cost-of-living headaches

By Catherine Baab, Quartz

Updated 19 hours ago

If you’ve noticed that you’re paying more these days for milk and oranges, Tuesday’s inflation report is unlikely to surprise you. The report shows U.S. inflation cooling slightly in December. But it also demonstrates how the price pressures consumers actually notice — especially at the grocery store — are still hanging around.

The headline numbers

Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose 0.2% in December, a shade below forecasts. That fits with the emerging consensus view that inflation is slowly moving closer towards the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Headline CPI also came in about where analysts expected, helped along by a big drop in used car prices. That price drop can be explained, in part, by the sheer difficulty consumers are having in affording used cars to begin with. Prices remain historically elevated, and monthly payments figure in the mid-$500s, according to industry sources.

Grocery costs keep climbing

It's not all good news, however. Food prices rose again in December, continuing a pattern that’s kept household budgets tight even as the broader inflation picture begins to even out. Food inflation may have slowed from its peak, sure, but such costs remain one of the stickiest and most prominent parts of the index — as well as the one people feel most directly.

Per the report: “Five of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased in December. The index for other food at home rose 1.6 percent over the month. The cereals and bakery products index increased 0.6 percent in December. The index for fruits and vegetables increased 0.5 percent and the index for nonalcoholic beverages increased 0.4 percent. The dairy and related products index rose 0.9 percent in December.” Add it all up, and the grocery increases come almost across the board.

Shelter costs also kept rising, though the pace is slowing. Rents for primary residences posted their smallest year-over-year increase since 2021, finally offering some evidence that housing inflation is slowing. Energy prices edged higher too, reinforcing the sense that inflation hasn't gone away.

Broadly, prediction markets, analysts, and Federal Reserve watchers expect the central bank to hold interest rates steady for now. Policymakers are likely pleased with the overall cooling trend, but they're not ready to declare victory yet. What’s more, mounting, explicit political pressure from the White House could have the opposite of its seeming intended effect, making the Fed more reluctant to cut rates, not less.

The bottom line

On the one hand, December's CPI report is reassuring — inflation is cooling down slightly. On the other hand, the report points to why so many consumers still experience cost-of-living headaches. Until grocery prices actually ease up, inflation will keep feeling more and more real than the headline numbers make it sound.