The Baby Bust Is Forcing a Reckoning at Public Schools

I asked Claude to analyse the map below:

Blue states (TX, FL, the Carolinas, TN, ID, UT, the Dakotas): in-migration of young families outweighs falling fertility. Florida stands out because it stayed blue despite large school-choice programs that pull students out of public enrollment.

• Dark brown, coastal and Northeast (CA, OR, NY, New England, IL): low fertility, high housing costs and family out-migration all push the same direction. The article’s Methuen example names both falling births and families being priced out.

• Dark brown, rural South and Southwest (MS, LA, WV, NM): there is little in-migration to offset falling births, and some young-adult out-migration.

• Tan middle (OH, PA, IN, MO and similar): roughly the national birth-driven drift, with migration a modest factor either way.

What's this mean? States like Illinois get clobbered as declining fertility and out migration produce a death spiral for school enrollment. States like Florida and Texas are receiving new residents and will be building new school (despite declining fertility).

The Baby Bust Is Forcing a Reckoning at Public Schools

Falling birthrates squeeze school budgets, leaving communities with tough trade-offs

By Chao Deng, WSJ

Oct. 28, 2026 9:51 am ET

Falling birthrates are driving down U.S. public-school enrollment, squeezing budgets and forcing districts to consider cutting staff and programs.

METHUEN, Mass.—Worries about rolling back school clubs and laying off teachers in this middle-class city reached a fever pitch earlier this year.

Budget strains in Methuen, a city of about 55,000 near the New Hampshire border, spurred a debate about putting cherished programs like middle-school band and elementary-school science on the chopping block. Also at risk: more than 100 positions, from custodians to teacher specialists.

By May, teachers and parents packed a city council meeting. Class sizes would balloon, they argued. Parent Anney Barrett said she worried her then-fifth-grade son, who plays trombone, would lose the opportunity to perform in a band.

“Cutting fine arts feels like a red line to me,” she said.

Similar scenes are playing out across the U.S. as K-12 student enrollment falls, putting pressure on government funding. A major culprit of falling enrollment is families having fewer children.

The debates hit hard in Massachusetts, which has long prided itself on a top-tier public education. Near Methuen in the Merrimack Valley, Dracut Public Schools are considering closing an elementary school that has shrunk to 210 students from almost 300, eliminating busing for some grades and reducing full-day kindergarten to half. In North Andover, administrators closed an elementary school last year as a result of declining enrollment, redistributing about 200 students.

“We definitely have too many schools for how many kids we have,” said Marguerite Roza, a Georgetown professor who studies education finance.

Annual births in the U.S. have fallen off since peaking in 2007. Today’s kindergarten enrollment declines reflect the “missing” births of five to six years earlier.

Enrollment at K-12 public schools totaled 48.8 million students in the 2025-26 school year, down 3.7% from 2017-18, according to Roza’s analysis of federal data. Demographers like her expect the decline to continue, even accelerate, because of lower birthrates.

Many school districts have additional enrollment pressures that compound falling birthrates. Some families are priced out of rising housing markets. Others are choosing private or alternative schools. In some places, federal policies targeting immigrants have prompted parents to withdraw their children from school, school officials say.

Like most states, Massachusetts ties education aid to enrollment, while cities and towns contribute local funds. When student numbers fall, districts often still face high fixed costs for staffing, buildings and services.

Michelle Reitano, a kindergarten teacher in Methuen, said her class sizes have ranged from 16 to 18 children in recent years, down from 20 to 24 when she began teaching in the district in 2012. At the same time, she said, the demands on teachers have risen as more students exhibit autism, developmental issues and other special needs; there are also more students struggling with English as a second language.

“Enrollment is falling but the needs are rising,” Reitano said. “The conversation happens year after year, and it definitely seems to get worse.”

Over the years, Methuen has eliminated teaching positions and cut some Spanish and health-education classes. Rather than hiring additional librarians, the district’s high-school librarian spends a few hours a week at each of its K-8 schools. At one school, art-class sizes have grown as budget cuts reshape schedules and course offerings.

“There are no obvious decisions, no easy call,” said Dan Shibilia, a parent who has served on the district’s school board.

This past spring, the school committee initially approved a budget of $118 million for the 2026-27 school year, higher than the $114 million the city said it could afford. The shortfall prompted a wave of debate about what the community wants its schools to offer.

At the city council meeting, fourth-grade teacher Sharon LaPlante argued that there was no way teachers could handle classes of 28 students, especially when many have additional needs.

“It won’t be teaching. It will be monitoring,” she said.

Barrett, the parent whose son plays trombone, brought her grade-school daughter Helen, who said kids were already losing out after wellness classes were cut.

“That was where we learned about how to help someone that was being bullied and what to do if you feel really mad or sad at school,” said the young girl.

David P. Beauregard Jr., the mayor and school committee chair, ended up finding an extra $800,000 to help preserve the district’s after-school programs. The district called back some teachers it had let go and only dozens of positions were ultimately eliminated. The cuts included K-6 teachers, medical assistants, school counselors, a multilingual teacher, and a technology specialist. The district also had to shelve plans for a new financial literacy program.

Nicholas DiZoglio, vice chair of the school committee, has wondered whether the district should reorganize its four K-8 schools into an elementary school, a junior high and a collaborative school for students with special needs. Seventh- and eighth-graders might be able to participate in sports at the high-school level, while juniors and seniors take college courses at nearby UMass Lowell.

“I don’t want to close schools,” he said. “It’s about utilizing our assets better.”

To try to boost enrollment, the district recently voted to open up 10 seats to students from outside the district. Lisa G. Twomey, the interim superintendent, doesn’t see that as a meaningful long-term solution, since lower birthrates are plaguing the whole state.

“We’re trying to play for the same students—of which there are fewer,” she said.

The district is trying to expand its vocational offerings to retain more high-school students. It also plans to save costs in the long run by investing in an in-house special-education program. Sending kids with disabilities to outside programs currently costs the district millions each year.

Twomey recently asked her school committee to add special-education teachers, a school-transportation administrator and an overseer for the high school’s vocational program.

“We got them, but it’s always a shuffle,” she said.