What do the betting markets say about the midterms?

Betting markets have, on occasion, outperformed polling data, but not always. Currently, both approaches predict a split Congress next November.

Do I buy that? Not necessarily. If the economy continues to perform and Voldemort generates some momentum in bringing consumer prices down...the House may defy current odds.

As for the ICE debacle, while it's a major influencer at the moment, I suspect it will lose voter influence over time (assuming Homan is able to turn the situation around).

Based on current betting odds from the major prediction markets, here's the summary for GOP control in the 2026 midterms:

Senate - GOP Favored to Hold

Kalshi (via ElectionBettingOdds.com):

Republicans: 65.2% ($1.07M bet)

Democrats: 34.8%

Polymarket:

Republicans: 66% ($452k volume)

Democrats: 35%

House - Democrats Strongly Favored to Flip

Kalshi (via ElectionBettingOdds.com):

Democrats: 77.5% ($4.06M bet)

Republicans: 22.5%

Polymarket:

Democrats: 78% ($2M volume)

Republicans: 23%

Key Takeaways

The betting markets show a strong consensus that we'll likely see a split Congress after 2026, with:

Republicans maintaining Senate control (roughly 2-in-3 odds)

Democrats flipping the House (roughly 3-in-4 odds)

This would give us the most likely outcome of Republican Senate, Democratic House - which Polymarket prices at 44% for that specific combination. The markets reflect typical midterm patterns where the president's party (Republicans) tends to lose House seats, while the Senate map heavily favors GOP defense with 23 of 35 seats being Republican-held.

Source ClaudeAI