When Each Country Will Reach Its Population Peak

When Each Country Will Reach Its Population Peak

September 1, 2025

By Dorothy Neufeld, Visual Capitalist

Key Takeaways

China, Germany, and Japan have all reached peak population by 2024, based on analysis from the UN.

Across 48 countries, populations are projected to peak between 2025 and 2054, representing 10% of the world population.

Meanwhile, 126 countries are forecast to grow through 2054, including India, Pakistan, Nigeria, and America.

Today, at least one in two countries globally have fertility rates below the 2.1 replacement level.

Going further, women bear one child fewer, on average, than around 1990. Paired with aging populations, this suggests that several countries have already hit their population peak, according to the latest analysis from the UN.

This graphic shows global population peak by country, based on data from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 report.

Notably, more than a quarter of the global population live in countries that are shrinking in population size including Japan, Cuba, Germany, and China.

In Japan, 30% of the population is aged 65 or older, the highest rate globally after Monaco. Today, 43 countries are considered “super-aged”, where the senior population makes up at least 20% of the population.

On the other hand, immigration will be a primary driver of population growth in countries like the U.S. and Canada, despite record-low fertility rates. Overall, 52 countries are projected to grow through 2054 largely due to national immigration policies.

Meanwhile, high fertility rates and younger demographics are set to propel growth in 126 countries, with many of these being among the world’s most populous. India, Pakistan, and Indonesia all fall within this group.