Why Vail is losing resorts in a growing industry?

The Douchebag from Vail Resorts interviewed does have a point. Vail has had a shitload of skiers for a long time. Looks like their coming down from peak? I guess people enjoy going up to Canada and freezing their ass off.

I've fired up Claude AI to prepare a comparison chart (& some analysis beyond what the guys at the WSJ did-below). I know, I'm the GOAT.

The "US resorts softening vs. Whistler staying strong" pattern on the chart has several overlapping explanations:

1. The COVID distortion that makes it look worse than it is

The biggest thing to understand is that US resorts (and Whistler) all hit record or near-record highs in 2021-23 because of a post-COVID outdoor recreation explosion fueled by what SAM Magazine calls "Covid cash" — visits eclipsed 60 million for the first time in 2021-22, and revenues increased a whopping 36.5% that year. Saminfo What looks like a "decline" now is largely normalization off an anomalous peak. Covid money has been spent, savings rates are falling rapidly, and credit card debt is skyrocketing — consumer financial profiles look vastly different in 2025. Saminfo

2. Climate change is hitting US resorts harder, sooner

This is a real and worsening structural pressure. From 2000–2019, the average ski season in the US shortened by 5–7 days, and the ski industry loses income from late openings, early closures, and the growing cost of machine-made snow. Earth.Org A major 2024 study found climate change is costing the US ski industry $252 million per year — from fewer skier visits and higher snow production costs — and researchers concluded that "the era of peak ski seasons has likely passed in most US markets." TownLift Nationally, there has been a loss of about 11–17 inches of snowfall nationally over the last 30 years, with potential for a 20–30% decline across US resorts by 2050. Bank of America Institute

3. Whistler's snowfall advantage is enormous — for now

Whistler averages 458 inches of snowfall per year Whistlerplatinum, driven by Pacific maritime storms that have no equivalent in Colorado's continental climate. Vail averages around 350 inches in a good year. That 100+ inch buffer means Whistler is more insulated from marginal winters. It's also a larger mountain (8,171 acres vs. Vail's 5,317) drawing from a broader international visitor pool including Australia, Japan, and Europe that Colorado resorts don't tap as deeply.

4. But Whistler is not immune — it's just later

This is the nuance the graph obscures. Climate data from Whistler's Roundhouse Lodge stretching back to the 1970s shows a clear pattern — as climate change collides with El Niño-dominated winters, the warming and drying effects are getting worse. Pique Newsmagazine One UBC climatologist studying the data was stark: "Whistler will not be a ski resort by 2085. It probably won't be economical to run it as a ski resort by 2050." Pique Newsmagazine Climate models suggest by 2085, half of winter precipitation falling on Whistler Village will come as rain. Pique Newsmagazine Whistler's current strength partly reflects that it has more snowfall in the bank to lose before the problem becomes visible in visit numbers.

5. Price and accessibility are suppressing US demand broadly

A lift ticket at a major US resort was $26 in 1978 (around $126 in today's money), but now costs upwards of $259 in 2025. My Ski Lessons Combined with lodging, travel, gear, and food, skiing has increasingly become a luxury product. The US population growth is far outpacing skier participation levels, and over 70% of skier visits in 2024-25 came from individuals who first started skiing before age 18 — with lesson numbers trending down particularly for younger skiers. Conskierge The sport is aging into its existing base without replacing it well.

6. Vail Resorts specifically has company-specific headwinds

Beyond industry trends, Vail's recent declines have a reputational component — the Park City ski patrol strike in late 2024 was damaging. And their business model shift toward season pass revenue over walk-up ticket sales means even when visits decline, lift ticket revenue can still rise Vail Resorts, Inc. — which is strategically intentional but shows up as lower visit counts in the data.

The short version: US resort softening is about 50% COVID normalization, 30% structural climate and cost pressures, and 20% Vail-specific issues. Whistler looks stronger mainly because it started from a bigger snowfall base and has more runway before those same pressures hit it visibly.