McKinsey says AI might push 11 million U.S. workers into entirely new careers by 2035
Like I believe those gonifs over at McKinsey. Besides, on the off chance they're correct I could always transition and become a game show host!
McKinsey says AI might push 11 million U.S. workers into entirely new careers by 2035
The consulting firm's research arm says AI and automation could force a workforce shift larger than any in U.S. history
By Cris Tolomia, Quartz Media
Updated September 30, 2026
McKinsey says AI might push 11 million U.S. workers into entirely new careers by 2035
Credit: McKinsey & Company
McKinsey Global Institute released a report Tuesday estimating that roughly 11 million U.S. workers — about 7% of current employees — may need to switch occupations by 2035 as artificial intelligence and automation reshape the labor market.
The report projects that automation could displace the equivalent of 36 million positions over the next decade, with expansion in AI-driven sectors and the wider economy expected to create demand for more than 40 million jobs over that same window. About 25 million workers whose roles are touched by automation are expected to stay put, McKinsey said, because expansion within their industries should absorb much of the pressure. The remaining 11 million may need to change occupations entirely, with the total ranging from 6 million to 16 million depending on how quickly automation spreads.
"The next decade's challenge is mobility, not scarcity," the report states.
Despite the projected net job creation, McKinsey warned the transition "may require the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in U.S. history." Meeting the reallocation demand would require roughly 770,000 workers to switch occupational groups each year — about 3.6 times the historical average, the report said.
The burden of transition would fall unevenly. More than 75% of workers who may need to move into new occupations are concentrated in three fields: office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher-wage workers to need to change occupations entirely, and workers without a college degree are about 1.8 times as likely as those with a bachelor's degree to face such a shift.
Pathway quality varies widely among those who do need to transition. Only about one in seven workers has what McKinsey describes as a direct pathway — one requiring minimal retraining and no wage loss. About four in ten face a winding pathway requiring meaningful reskilling, while nearly half face an unpaved pathway marked by larger skill gaps, credential requirements, or other barriers.
Credentials are a significant obstacle: roughly 85% of growing jobs require some form of credential or certification, McKinsey found.
The report also identifies skills it says will be most valuable during the transition period. Demand for AI fluency in job postings increased approximately 11 times between 2022 and 2026, while demand for adaptability increased fivefold and demand for resilience, curiosity, and willingness to learn tripled.
The report's findings were published as Americans' confidence in the labor market weakened. The Conference Board's index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, a 12-year low, according to CNN. Glassdoor's Employee Confidence Index also hit a record low in September, according to CNN.
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