NYC Mayoral racing tightening up?

OMG, I can't sleep. I'm on the edge of my seat.

Bombshell NYC election eve poll predicts Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo mayoral race will come down to wire

By Craig McCarthy, Carl Campanile and Matt Troutman, NY Post

Published Nov. 3, 2025, 1:46 p.m. ET

New York City could get its first socialist mayor Tuesday as a record-breaking 2 million voters are projected to head to the ballot box — but a bombshell election-eve poll found the higgledy-piggledy race will come down to the wire.

Andrew Cuomo came in within a razor-thin 4 points of longtime front-runner Zohran Mamdani in the new AtlasIntel survey released Monday, with the lefty Democratic nominee notching 43.9% support to the former governor’s 39.4% in the historic three-way contest.

Andrew Cuomo wearing a "Cuomo For Mayor" sweatshirt, pumping his fist and smiling, while campaigning in Washington Heights.

Independent mayoral hopeful Andrew Cuomo, seen here campaigning in Washington Heights on Monday, would beat Democratic front-runner Zohran Mamdani in a head-to-head race, a bombshell new poll found.

James Keivom

The survey found Cuomo, a longtime Democrat running as an independent, would beat Mamdani 49.7% to 44.1%. in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

But Mamdani maintained a lead because GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa claimed 15.5% support, the poll indicates.

The hectic day largely revolved around President Trump, who by the evening had come out with a full-throated call for New Yorkers to vote for Cuomo.

“Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “You must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable of it, Mamdani is not!”

The president’s last-minute wading into the race followed Mamdani seizing on Trump’s weekend “60 Minutes” interview, in which he backhandedly said he’d pick a “bad Democrat,” meaning Cuomo, over a “communist” — something the lefty state assemblyman cast as an endorsement of his opponent.

Cuomo shot back that Trump — who also boasted on CBS News that he’s “much better looking” than the youthful candidate — would make a meal of Mamdani, distancing himself from the president who’s unpopular in the deep blue city.

More than 730,000 New Yorkers flocked to the polls to vote early during the 9-day period that ended Saturday, tallies show.

Gen Zers and Millennials outnumbered their older counterparts at the polls during early voting’s last days – a potential good sign for Mamdani, who rode their support to a stunning victory over Cuomo in the Democratic primary in June.

Stephen Graves, an analyst with Gotham Polling, told The Post that despite a larger turnout of younger ballot-casters during the early voting period, Election Day likely will attract the older crowds.

He said it could play into Cuomo’s favor if more than 2 million voters end up casting ballots as projected.

“As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents,” the analyst said.

“That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats.”

Other pollsters were less sure of a close race, arguing Mamdani is less reliant on young voters than in the primary.

In a hypothetical two-way race, Cuomo tops Mamdani 49.7% to 44.1%, per the poll.

Some signs indicate that Mamdani, rather than facing a squeaker, could actually be on pace for grabbing a clear majority of votes, said Alyssa Cass, a partner with Slingshot Strategies.

“When you run an error-free general election campaign … it’s a safe bet that you are on a slide path to win — and to win by more than 50 percent,” she said.

Still, Cuomo’s campaign also latched onto the AtlasIntel survey as a sign that momentum had shifted from perennial polling favorite Mamdani enough to catapult the ex-gov into City Hall – a rosy assessment that prompted words of caution from pollsters.

“I think the race is getting tighter, but I don’t think it’s as close as this poll says,” said John McLaughlin, a GOP pollster for Trump and Empire State Republicans.

The AtlasIntel poll’s pool of 2,400 voters between Friday and Sunday only included 59% of respondents who were Democrats, far below the city’s likely percentage of Dems, McLaughlin pointed out.

Miringhoff, whose outfit released a poll less than a week ago finding Mamdani up by 16 points, also found the poll’s share of Democratic voters appeared low, compared to his Marist surveys where Dems account for two-thirds of the sample.

The AtlasIntel poll had Dems at just 59%, Republican voters at 19% and independents at nearly 22%.

Early voting tallies have Dems accounting for just over 73% of votes, GOP voters at roughly 11% and independents at just under 15%.

The turnout so far hints the hotly contested race could hit 2 million voters for the first time since 1969, when 2.5 million New Yorkers hit the polls to elect liberal – and Mamdani precursor – John Lindsay as mayor, experts predict.

Late-breaking polls have consistently shown Mamdani leading the race over a second-place Cuomo, albeit with wildly varied margins – from as high as 25 points to 6 points, as a previous AtlasIntel survey from the weekend found.

McLaughlin was struck by the fact that it’s the first poll to find Mamdani’s popularity underwater, with 44% viewing him negatively and 50% positively.

“Mamdani having a negative rating is a sea change,” he said. “Either the issue attacks on him are working or there are too few Democrats in the poll.”