The Iceberg Index? Predictor of how many jobs replaced by AI?

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Research finds AI is ready to displace jobs

The Deep View

Dec 17, 2025

AI might already be good enough to do your job.

A study from MIT released last week found that AI is already capable of replacing around 11.7% of the U.S. labor market, accounting for $1.2 trillion in wages.

Using a labor simulation tool called the Iceberg Index, MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers tested how 151 million workers are currently affected by AI, mapping 32,000 skills across more than 900 occupations in 3,000 counties. The findings showed that, while roles in tech are most severely exposed to AI, positions across HR, logistics, finances and administration are also exposed.

It’s not the first time researchers have read the tea leaves on how AI is going to impact the job market.

Data published last week by McKinsey found that AI and robotics could automate activities accounting for 57% of US work hours.

And in July, Microsoft researchers published findings detailing the top 40 occupations that are most exposed to generative AI, with positions like historians, sales representatives, translators, technical writers and data scientists facing high risk.

Amid the debate on just how capable AI is at doing the jobs of humans, many companies have already started workforce reductions: Last week, HP announced that it would cut around 6,000 employees by 2028 as part of its plan to streamline work and increase AI adoption, particularly in product development, internal operations and customer support.

In September, Lufthansa announced 4,000 job cuts as it leaned into AI, primarily focused on administrative roles, and Fiverr laid off 30% of its staff as part of its transition into an AI-first company. Klarna, Salesforce and Accenture have all slashed thousands of staff due to automation and an inability to reskill certain employees.

While executives are increasingly gung-ho on the prospect of AI automation, that excitement is matched by rising tension from workers themselves. Data from KPMG released last week finds that 52% of workers now fear job displacement, nearly double the percentage reported the previous year. For AI adoption to work, enterprises need to find a sweet spot: Using agents to fill the tedious work that people actually hate, while upskilling their employees into more meaningful roles that require a human touch.