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Zeihan thinks higher interest rates for years. Me too!

Zeihan points out that while supply chain inflation is largely getting wrung out of the system, the Federal Reserve isn't about to lower interest rates. He also correctly points out that the US (& other global powers) have been awash in capital since the Baby Boomer Generation was in their capital-rich investment years (age 45-65). As they enter retirement their ability to invest dries up. There's less capital available which drives up the cost of for such (interest rates).

I'll also add two of my own thoughts:

  • Since Obama took office our federal borrowing has gone from $10 trillion to well over $30 trillion. Any way for that not to be inflationary? Nope.

  • The supply of labor isn't growing like mad. China for the past 17 years has added about 250 million skilled workers to the manuf/service sectors (compared to the US/Europe's 60 million combined). China is basically tapped out and won't be bringing many new workers into the global economy. Their labor force will shrink. As the global labor force shrinks, the wages for workers have only one way to go...up. That's also inflationary.

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