What AI model do the betting prediction markets think best?

I use several models. For producing charts from data I prefer ClaudeAI. For quickly doing research Gemini and ChatGPT kick ass. I need to check out Grok.

Prediction markets: Google to win 2026 AI race

The Deep View, Dec 26, 2025

During 2025, we saw an explosion in hype surrounding prediction markets, which are platforms for placing wagers on future events like elections, sports games, or how much it’s going to snow in Chicago next month.

The shifting odds on AI-focused prediction markets, which are kind of like sports betting for people who use Cursor, illustrate how popular perceptions on the AI race changed over the course of this year. Perhaps no chart is more telling than this one:

When Kalshi’s prediction market for the best AI model (as measured by the LMArena leaderboard) opened in November 2024, there was broad agreement that ChatGPT would take the cake. However, trust in OpenAI’s model waned throughout the year, while belief in Google Gemini slowly picked up steam.

Interestingly, xAI’s Grok surged to 35% odds to be the best AI model by the end of the year for two weeks in March, surpassing both ChatGPT and Gemini. This was around the time that Grok-3 was released, which outperformed rivals on multiple benchmarks. The lab continued to push improvements for the model over the next couple weeks, but after DeeperSearch and an image editing tool were released, Grok fell behind Gemini — although it interestingly traded more or less in lockstep with ChatGPT’s odds for the rest of the year.

As you can see, prediction markets were bullish on Gemini far before Gemini 3’s release led OpenAI boss Sam Altman to declare a code red at the company. However, Gemini’s chances of victory leaped to over 91% shortly after Gemini 3 was made public.

Other AI-themed prediction markets tell their own little stories. After crossing 40% in the wake of DeepSeek-R1’s release, the odds that a Chinese AI model claims the #1 spot are now around 2%. Bettors were caught off guard by OpenAI’s decision to restructure as a for-profit company, giving the company’s odds of ditching its non-profit structure just a 24% chance. The chances Congress passes an AI law have slowly declined, as have the odds that OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI by 2030.

There is one set of odds that have been increasing though: The New York Times’ chances of winning its lawsuit against OpenAI.